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  • Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it? 
  • A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year. 
  • Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us. 

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Keywords for: 22 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence