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  • EZ inflation is headed for just under 3% by May; the ECB will hike in response, likely in June and July.
  • The ECB will justify higher rates by the need to move interest rates to the higher end of neutral.
  • History warns against hiking into oil-price shocks, but the ECB will believe it can pull it off, again.

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Keywords for: 19 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence