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14th Jul 2025 10:28EurozoneWeekly Monitor

  • A 30% US tariff on EU exports would send the EZ economy into recession in the second half of 2025.
  • Markets don’t believe Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, but a US-EU escalation cycle is still a big near-term risk.
  • The ECB will hold fire in July unless it is absolutely certain a 30% tariff is coming over the summer.

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Keywords for: 15 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence