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  • The ECB will hold fire next week, but the risk of a hawkish shift in communication is now elevated.  
  • EZ inflation is on track to settle well above the ECB’s target, based on current oil and gas price futures. 
  • A modest 50bp tightening in Q2, taking interest rates to the higher end of neutral, is now a key risk.

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Keywords for: 10 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence