Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
yields
In one line: Markets believe the ECB is done; we don’t.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
- ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
- We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ budget deficit fell in Q2; we think it will widen to year-end, but are revising down our 2022 forecast.
- Fiscal plans for 2023, and slower nominal growth, point to a deficit of 3.5% next year, as in 2022.
- Interest costs are rising, as government bond yields creep higher, but the debt ratio will still fall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
- Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
- Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
- The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
- Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
- The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
- Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
- Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
- BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
- Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
- Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We now think the ECB will lift rates by 50bp three times this year, but still expect a pause in H1-23.
- Today's EZ inflation data will offer little relief for markets recently stung by hawkish ECB comments.
- Surveyed inflation expectations are falling, in line with the idea of a reduced tightening pace in 2023.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
