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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

yields

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2023

In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

  • Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
  • ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
  • We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Governments are Low-balling their 2023 Budget Forecasts

  • The EZ budget deficit fell in Q2; we think it will widen to year-end, but are revising down our 2022 forecast.
  • Fiscal plans for 2023, and slower nominal growth, point to a deficit of 3.5% next year, as in 2022.
  • Interest costs are rising, as government bond yields creep higher, but the debt ratio will still fall.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Industrial Output Struggled in Q3, Despite a Decent August

  • EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
  • Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
  • Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The 2s10s Bund Curve is about to Invert; What Happens Next

  • Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
  • The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
  • Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Centre-Right Looks Set to Win in Italy; Big Challenges Await

  • Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
  • Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
  • BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Crashed at the Start of the Third Quarter

  • The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
  • Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
  • Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Priming Markets for a Series of 50bp Rate Hikes

  • We now think the ECB will lift rates by 50bp three times this year, but still expect a pause in H1-23.
  • Today's EZ inflation data will offer little relief for markets recently stung by hawkish ECB comments.
  • Surveyed inflation expectations are falling, in line with the idea of a reduced tightening pace in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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