Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
- The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
- Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.
- Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
- Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
- Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.
- Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
- We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
- Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.
- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
- The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
- ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
- The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
- Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
- PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
- The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.
From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum—no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines—but for markets it is binary.