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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

9 Nov 2021 Markets are Listening to the ECB, but Still Expect a Hike in 2022

  • Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
  • Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
  • Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

28 Oct 2021 The ECB will Push Back Against Rising Rate Expectations Today

  • Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
  • We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
  • Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

  • The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
  • …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
  • We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

  • The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
  • ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
  • The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

  • A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
  • The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2021 EZ Core Inflation Leapt in August, due Mainly to Technical Factors

  • Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
  • PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
  • The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2021 Who's Afraid of the Taper? Not Many it Seems, for Now

From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum—no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines—but for markets it is binary.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence