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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

wage

27 June 2022 Are Bond Markets Moving from Inflation to Growth Fears?

Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?

The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.

Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 June 2022 No Relief for the ECB the EZ Inflation Data

The EZ core inflation rate will remain near 4% over the summer; it could even surpass 4% in July. 

A sustained cut in Russian gas flows to Europe would send energy prices and inflation soaring, again. 

Is the ECB edging towards an explicit cap on bond spreads? More QE will be needed if it is. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 May 2022 EZ Core Inflation will Remain Above 3% Through 2023

EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.

We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.

Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2022 No Change to our SNB Forecast, Despite More Hikes from the ECB

 We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...

...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.

EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

4 Mar 2022 Activity Gains Pace; the Labour Market Brushed-Off Omicron

  • Spain's and Italy's PMIs support our view that their growth is slowing in Q1, despite the February uptick.
  • The implosion of Russia's economy will not derail the pick-up in EZ GDP growth in Q2.
  • The labour market is on fire, but is still not stoking wage prices pressures.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Feb 2022 Will Inflation Put a Squeeze on EZ Consumption and GDP Growth?

  • The slowdown in real M1 growth warns of a composite PMI in the low 50s through Q2.
  • Inflation will weigh on real wage growth in H1, but households have savings to smooth consumption.
  • The ECB would think twice about tightening if Q2 growth disappoints, but no respite in the near term.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

14 Feb 2022 The ECB Tries to Put the Genie Back in the Bottle; Will it Work?

  • The ECB is pushing back against the dramatic shift in forecasters’ expectations for tighter policy.
  • German core inflation fell only slightly in January; the core HICP rate will rise to 3.5% by April.
  • The Swiss don’t have an inflation problem, unlike their neighbour, despite the rise in prices in January.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

9 Feb 2022 The SNB will Stand Pat, even as the ECB Moves to Tighten

  • The ECB and SNB policy settings have been joined at the hip in the past...
  • ...But we don't think the SNB will follow the ECB in tightening policy this time around.
  • We look for CHF to appreciate vs the euro over the coming months, ending the year back at CHF 1.03.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Feb 2022 The ECB Sets the Stage for Accelerated Taper, and Rate Hikes

  • The ECB is preparing markets for a hawkish policy shift in March; QE will end this year.
  • We now look for three rate hikes in the first half of 2023; in January, March and June.
  • The PMIs confirm that Omicron hit services hard in January, especially in southern Europe.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

3 Feb 2022 The ECB is in a Tight Spot, Sooner than We Anticipated

  • EZ inflation blew past expectations in January, leaving the ECB in a tight spot today.
  • Risks are tilted towards a quicker than expected withdrawal of QE; we look for a taper to zero in Q4.
  • The ECB's bank lending survey points to strong demand for credit, and banks are willing to lend.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

2 Feb 2022 EZ Unemployment is at a Record Low, and this is Just the Be ginning

  • German retail sales were hit hard by virus restrictions at the end of the fourth quarter…
  • …But the labour market is going from strength to strength; unemployment will fall below 5% soon.
  • Unemployment in the EZ hit a record low of 7% in December; it will fall much further this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2022 Spain is On Track for 1.5% q/q Growth in Q4, a Positive Outlier

  • Stronger-than-expected industry and retail data lead us to revise up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain.
  • We now think GDP grew by 1.5% q/q, much quicker than in the other major EZ economies.
  • Solid Q4 growth increases the carry-over for 2022 growth forecasts, but Spain is still a laggard.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Jan 2022 A Regime Shift is Underway in the Euro Area's Labour Market

  • EZ unemployment fell further in November, due to an improvement in all major economies.
  • Unemployment in the euro area will fall below 7% soon, even with Omicron now a near-term threat.
  • Our labour market forecasts imply accelerating wage growth in 2022; the ECB will take note.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Dec 2021 Supply Chain Issues will Continue to Weigh on EZ Output in 2022

  • Supply bottlenecks are now easing, but likely will remain a challenge at the start of next year.
  • Rising energy costs and new virus restrictions are the key risks to manufacturing in the near term.
  • The virus might also drive more long-lasting distortions between supply and demand.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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