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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?
The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.
Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.
The EZ core inflation rate will remain near 4% over the summer; it could even surpass 4% in July.
A sustained cut in Russian gas flows to Europe would send energy prices and inflation soaring, again.
Is the ECB edging towards an explicit cap on bond spreads? More QE will be needed if it is.
EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.
We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.
Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...
...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.
EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.
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