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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

vehicles Central Banks

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

  • Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
  • Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
  • The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2021 How Quickly is EZ Core Inflation Rising? We Can't Yet be Sure

Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.

Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.

Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 EZ Wages are Back to Pre-Virus Levels, and More Gains to Come

  • Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
  • Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
  • We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

  • The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
  • ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
  • We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Sept 2021 A Slight Slowdown in PEPP is Coming in Q4, as Expected

  • The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
  • Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
  • The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2021 The ECB will Signal a Slower Q4 Pace of PEPP Purchases Today

  • The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
  • The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
  • Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2021 A V-Shaped Recovery in the EZ Economy is Now in Sight

  • German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
  • Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
  • We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2021 EZ Core Inflation Leapt in August, due Mainly to Technical Factors

  • Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
  • PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
  • The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

  • VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
  • The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
  • We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2021 Is the Reflation Trade in Bonds Dead and Buried?

EZ bond yields have been dragged lower as investors have abandoned the reflation trade.
Idiosyncratic factors will weigh on bund yields in H2, but we still see room for a rise to -0.3-to-0.4% in Q4.
Energy imports, and goods demand from Eastern Europe, are weighing on Germany's trade surplus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.

We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.

Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of QE—signalled to be conducted at a "significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year" in Q3—until the new staff projections are released in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 July 2021 The ECB is All-In on the Climate, but What does it Mean in Practice?

The ECB is pushing forward with its commitment to incorporate climate change into its policy framework over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review—see here—ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from
readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome
of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors' minds.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2021 Who's Afraid of the Taper? Not Many it Seems, for Now

From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum—no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines—but for markets it is binary.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 June 2021 Expect a Quiet SNB Meeting, but Higher CHF Sales Needed Soon

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its powder dry today and leave its policy rate at -0.75%, a number we recommend investors get used to.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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