Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
- But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
- The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.
In one line: On track for a record-low of 7% by year-end.
- Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
- ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
- ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.
- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
In one line: Germany's jobless rate has further to fall.
- Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
- ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
- The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.
- B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
- The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
- French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.
- Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
- ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
- The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
- The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
- Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.
- Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
- …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
- Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.
- EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
- We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
- Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.
- EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
- ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
- We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.
- EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
- The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
- ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.
- Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
- An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
- We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.
- Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
- Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
- Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.
- GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
- Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
- Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.
- EZ unemployment fell again in September, and survey data point to further improvement in Q4.
- We think Eurozone unemployment will fall below 7% next year, hitting 6% by 2023.
- The SNB is fine with EURCHF closing in on 1.05, but only for as long as inflation is rising.
In one line: EZ Jobless rate has further to fall.
- The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
- France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
- We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.