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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

unemployment

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, October 2022

In one line: A new record low; labour market resilience will fade soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Waning demand for labour suggests the jobless rate has further to rise 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's €200B Energy Support is a Game-Changer for 2023

  • Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
  • The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
  • German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German Unemployment & Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs, October 2022

In one line: Resilience in Germany’s labour market; EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, EZ, Sep/Aug

In one line: Consistent with a 75bp hike in October, but core inflation likely has peaked. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, September

In one line:  Further increases in the unemployment rate are likely. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Centre-Right Looks Set to Win in Italy; Big Challenges Await

  • Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
  • Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
  • BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, August 2022

In one line: Unemployment is rising, but mainly due to supply-side effects.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, June

In one line: Eurostat’s measure shows no “refugee effect”.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q2 GDP & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: GDP will soon be falling; a rise in labour supply is lifting the unemployment rate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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