Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade numbers

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, March 2022

 In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, March 2022

In one line: The deficit in goods is widening, but the surplus in services is soaring.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 May 2022 We Now Think the ECB will Lift its Deposit Rate in July, by 25bp

Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.

Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.

Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Stung by a collapse in exports to Russia; imports are still rising sharply. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany & Italy, Q1 2022

In one line: Germany avoids recession; Italian economy contracts on the back of a fall in net trade.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, April & GDP, Spain, Q1 2022

In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1

In one line: Dragged down by weak services consumption. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial production & Trade, Eurozone, February

In one line: Industry supported growth in Q1; the trade deficit widened again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, February 2022

In one line: The deficit in goods remains wide, but the surplus in services is robust. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Apr 2022 A Russian Energy Embargo Likely Would Send EURUSD to Parity

The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.

A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.

German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Apr 2022 France is Set for Another Face-Off Between Macron and Le Pen

The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.

Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.

Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence