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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade deficit

16 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Downturn Confirmed; The EZ is Still on Course for a Recession

  • The second release of EZ Q3 GDP confirmed the downturn and a slowdown in productivity growth.
  • The nominal goods trade deficit narrowed in September; it will likely continue to do so in Q4.
  • Still, we think that net trade will contribute to a fall in GDP this quarter and next.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Trade & ZEW, EZ & Germany, Q3 2022/Sep/Nov

In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Trade & ZEW, EZ & Germany, Q3 2022/Sep/Nov

In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Governments are Low-balling their 2023 Budget Forecasts

  • The EZ budget deficit fell in Q2; we think it will widen to year-end, but are revising down our 2022 forecast.
  • Fiscal plans for 2023, and slower nominal growth, point to a deficit of 3.5% next year, as in 2022.
  • Interest costs are rising, as government bond yields creep higher, but the debt ratio will still fall.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EURUSD is Set too Rise Above Parity in the Next Six Months

  • The EZ energy trade deficit with the U.S. will soon hit 1% of GDP, pointing to a structural hit to EURUSD.
  • This knock is difficult to quantify, but we suspect 1.00-to-1.10 is the new normal for EURUSD.
  • We still think EURUSD will rebound in the next three- to-six months, hitting 1.05 by March.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's Getting Easier to Find Evidence of a Peak in EZ Core Inflation

  • Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
  • ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
  • The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMIs for September were Ugly, and they will be Worse in Q4

  • The EZ PMIs weakened further in September, and we fear further declines lie ahead.
  • Industrial output in French transport equipment jumped by 16% in August; the recovery looks real.
  • German net exports of goods fell in Q3, but we think overall net trade rose, due to falling services imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Centre-Right Looks Set to Win in Italy; Big Challenges Await

  • Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
  • Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
  • BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Crashed at the Start of the Third Quarter

  • The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
  • Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
  • Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Net Trade is A Wildcard for Our EZ Recession Call

  • Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
  • We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
  • Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, July

In one line: Imports will rollover as the economy heads for recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, July 2022

In one line: Still-widening, but don’t forget the rising trend in net services trade.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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