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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Equities will Struggle to Build on their Recent Gains

Equities want to believe in a monetary policy pivot; we don’t share their optimism.

Valuations are now attractive for EZ equities, but we still think earnings have further to fall.

Eurostoxx 50 will fall 4% by year-end; we see gains of 10% and 13% in ’23 and ’24, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor What Does Record-High Inflation Mean for the EZ Economic Data

The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.

Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.

Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, June 2022

In one line: A solid finish to Q2 in manufacturing; net exports in services are soaring.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, June 2022

In one line: Lifted by improving net trade with China, the UK and Russia.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q2 2022 & Advance Inflation, EZ, July

In one line: Revisions will change the story for EZ GDP soon; Core inflation will stay at 4% through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q2 GDP & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: GDP will soon be falling; a rise in labour supply is lifting the unemployment rate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q2

In one line: Stronger than expected; Brace for a tough H2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q2

In one line: As we expected Spain did the heavy lifting in Q2

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2022 EZ Monitor This Week's Data will Set the Scene for the Incoming Recession

Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate. 

GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.

We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, EZ, May 2022

In one line: Depressed by accelerating imports; foreign investors are dumping EZ assets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 July 2022 Is This the Bottom for the EZ Trade Deficit? We Think So

The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.

The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.

Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, May 2022

In one line: A surprising rebound, but no change in the underlying trend, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2022 When will Swiss Inflation Start to Fall? August is a Good Bet

All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.

Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.

A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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