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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, EZ, November 2021

In one line: A surplus no more, but net trade still probably provided a little boost to GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Jan 2022 Draghi's Departure Wouldn't Change Italy's Outlook, Much

  • Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
  • Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
  • An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2022 Spain is On Track for 1.5% q/q Growth in Q4, a Positive Outlier

  • Stronger-than-expected industry and retail data lead us to revise up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain.
  • We now think GDP grew by 1.5% q/q, much quicker than in the other major EZ economies.
  • Solid Q4 growth increases the carry-over for 2022 growth forecasts, but Spain is still a laggard.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Jan 2022 Solid Q4 Retail Sales Growth Didn't Offset Weakness in Services

  • Retail sales data had a decent November, but online sales can't offset falling services spending.
  • Germany is on track to meet our expectations for Q4 growth, but we're reducing our forecasts in France.
  • EZ inflation has peaked; a strong rebound in the core will be a headache for the ECB in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, November 2021

In one line: Hit by rising energy costs and falling net exports in transport. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IP & Trade, Germany, Novermber 2021

In one line: Strangely weak industrial production; nominal imports are surging due to rising energy costs. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Q3 GDP, Spain

In one line: Revised up as expected, brace for much slower growth. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Dec 2021 The Euro Glut is Swelling, this time due to EZ Demand for Equities

  • The ECB’s data continue to paint a less dramatic picture of trade in goods than Eurostat's numbers.
  • Net services exports likely will jump in Q4, but this will be offset in part by a fall in IP capex.
  • The euro glut has expanded during the pandemic, due mainly to a rise in EZ foreign equity holdings.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

17 Dec 2021 EZ Monetary Stimulus is Set to Slow Next Year, Virus Permitting

The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.

ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.

The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, EZ, October & Hourly Labour Costs, EZ, Q3

In one line: Trade is still on track to boost GDP growth this quarter; wage growth has further to rise. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Dec 2021 Expect Another "No Change" at SNB's Meeting This Week

Higher inflation recently has allowed the SNB to tolerate a much stronger franc than in the past.
We expect the Bank to keep all policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.
But falling inflation and a stronger franc heading into 2022 will force it to ramp up CHF sales soon.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

14 Dec 2021 Wage Growth in the EZ Set to Accelerate in 2022, We Think

All signs point to stronger EZ wage growth next year, but it won't be easy to tell in real time.
Negotiated wage growth is still slowing, but the ECB’s preferred compensation measure is firming.
The trend in unemployment points to negotiated wage growth rising towards 3% next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

10 Dec 2021 Real Net Exports in Germany are Rebounding, We Think

  • Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
  • Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
  • The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Q3 GDP, EZ & ZEW, Germany, December

In one line: Q3’s performance was driven by consumption; ZEW points to a weak end to the year for Germany. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, October

In one line: The deficit in goods is widening, but the services surplus is rising. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Dec 2021 Yet Another Forecast Downgrade, this Time for Swiss GDP Growth

  • Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
  • But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
  • The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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