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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

surveys

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Apr 2022 The ECB will Repeat the March Message Today; QE will End in Q3

The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.

We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.

Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Apr 2022 The German Economy is Down, But Not Out, at Least Not Yet

German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.

Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.

Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Apr 2022 France is Set for Another Face-Off Between Macron and Le Pen

The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.

Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.

Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April 2022

In one line: No rebound in sight; will it hit the economic surveys?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

  • Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
  • Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
  • We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Mar 2022 EZ Consumers are Worried About Inflation, For Good Reason

  • Consumer confidence in the core is falling sharply, reflecting mainly worries of rising inflation.
  • EZ real wages are now falling, but savings will support spending in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
  • Fiscal support and a quicker reduction in household savings are the main upside risks to our baseline.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Mar 2022 EZ Survey Data Stayed Resilient in March, For the Most Part

  • Household confidence in the euro area plunged in March, but business surveys held up.
  • Private sector activity was still expanding at a decent clip at the end of Q1, but storm clouds are gathering.
  • The policy rate at the SNB isn't going anywhere, but the bank will intervene in FX markets, if needed.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Mar 2022 Brace for the First Post-War Data in the Eurozone Economy

  • Investor sentiment points to a fall in this week's eco- nomic surveys; brace for downside surprises.
  • Near-real-time data signal little in the way of a direct hit to activity from the war in Ukraine, yet.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January; is the deficit with China now shrinking?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Mar 2022 EZ Industry is Unlikely to Gain Much Momentum This Year

  • EZ industry has moved sideways since the start of 2021, as supply constraints held back output.
  • There are signs that higher energy costs are having a dampening affect on the most exposed sectors.
  • The war in Ukraine risks exacerbating this drag, further disrupting global supply chains.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Mar 2022 The ECB Today Will Signal a Quicker Withdrawal of QE

  • The ECB will highlight Ukraine as a downside risk to GDP growth today, pledging action if needed...
  • ...But we still think the central bank will announce its intention to wind down the APP, by October.
  • Could the ECB raise rates while still doing QE? Not based on current guidance, but this could change.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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