Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
- But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
- The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.
- Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
- ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
- ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.
- Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
- ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
- The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.
- B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
- The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
- French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.
German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.
We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.
German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.
- The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
- …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
- We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.
- The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
- ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
- GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
- …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
- Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.
- EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
- The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
- ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.
- The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
- Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
- Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.
- Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
- Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
- Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.
- GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
- Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
- Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.
- The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
- France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
- We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
- A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
- Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.
In one line: A big fall in claims, but the smoothed trend is now rolling over.
- Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
- We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
- Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.
- French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
- Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
- Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened
- We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
- Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
- …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.
- The composite PMIs are still consistent with robust GDP growth, but risks are stacked to the downside.
- If the PMIs are right, demand is now falling to match fixed supply; that means slower GDP growth.
- We look for another soft IFO today, but next week's consumer sentiment data should be more resilient.