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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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3 Dec 2021 Yet Another Forecast Downgrade, this Time for Swiss GDP Growth

  • Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
  • But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
  • The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

2 Dec 2021 House prices in the EZ are Rocketing; Does it Matter?

  • Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
  • ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
  • ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2021 #HereWeGoAgain: Covid is Once Again Haunting Markets

  • B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
  • French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

26 Nov 2021 Clouds Gather over Germany's Near-term Economic Outlook

  • German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.

    We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.

    German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

25 Nov 2021 We're Slashing our Q4 Forecasts in France, Despite Great Surveys

  • The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
  • …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
  • We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

24 Nov 2021 Surging Virus Cases Outweigh Rising PMIs in our Q4 Outlook

  • The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
  • ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
  • GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

18 Nov 2021 EZ Inflation will Cool in Q1, but Keep a Close Eye on Services

  • Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
  • …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
  • Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

12 Nov 2021 EZ Households have Financial Firepower, but will they Use it?

  • EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
  • The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
  • ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

10 Nov 2021 What is the Outlook for EZ Trade with its Main Trading Partners?

  • The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
  • Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
  • Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

9 Nov 2021 Markets are Listening to the ECB, but Still Expect a Hike in 2022

  • Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
  • Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
  • Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

  • GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
  • Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
  • Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Nov 2021 EZ GDP Recovered further in Q3, and Inflation is Still Running Hot

  • The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
  • France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
  • We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

29 Oct 2021 Either Markets aren't Listening to the ECB, or they Don't Believe it

  • Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
  • A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
  • Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, October 2021

In one line: A big fall in claims, but the smoothed trend is now rolling over. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Oct 2021 The ECB will Push Back Against Rising Rate Expectations Today

  • Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
  • We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
  • Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Oct 2021 What Happened in the Eurozone Economy in Q3?

  • French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
  • Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
  • Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Oct 2021 German GDP Rose Strongly in Q3, but by Less than the Consensus

  • We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
  • Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
  • …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2021 If the Supply Side Can't Move, Demand will Have to Fall

  • The composite PMIs are still consistent with robust GDP growth, but risks are stacked to the downside.
  • If the PMIs are right, demand is now falling to match fixed supply; that means slower GDP growth.
  • We look for another soft IFO today, but next week's consumer sentiment data should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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