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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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28 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Don't be Fooled by Robust Q3 German GDP data

The detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany paint too rosy a picture of growth; a recession is coming. 

German consumers’ spending has been resilient so far, but we think this will end in Q4 and Q1. 

We now see German growth of just 0.3% in 2023, but that’s still a lot better than the -0.7% consensus. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Downturn is Intensifying, but Inflation Pressures Still Intense

  • PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
  • High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
  • Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October 2022

In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's Getting Easier to Find Evidence of a Peak in EZ Core Inflation

  • Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
  • ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
  • The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

  • We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
  • Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
  • Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Surge in Gas Prices Piles More Pressure on the ECB

Soft money data rounded up a week of gloomy leading indicators for EZ GDP last week.
ISTAT data lend support to our view that Italy, along with Germany, is leading the EZ downturn in H2.
The sour data spooked some ECB members, but the ECB is not about to turn dovish.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's all Downhill from Here for Eurozone GDP Growth

We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.

The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.

The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Equities will Struggle to Build on their Recent Gains

Equities want to believe in a monetary policy pivot; we don’t share their optimism.

Valuations are now attractive for EZ equities, but we still think earnings have further to fall.

Eurostoxx 50 will fall 4% by year-end; we see gains of 10% and 13% in ’23 and ’24, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor What Does Record-High Inflation Mean for the EZ Economic Data

The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.

Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.

Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor If polls are right, Italy will soon get a right-wing government

If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.

This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.

Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Swiss Inflation will Peak in August; will Spanish GDP Slow in Q3?

We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.

Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...

...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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