Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
- ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
- ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.
- Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
- ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
- The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.
- B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
- The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
- French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.
German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.
We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.
German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.
- The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
- …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
- We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.
- The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
- ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
- GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.
- Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
- …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
- Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.
- The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
- Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
- Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.
- Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
- Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
- Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.
- GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
- Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
- Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
- A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
- Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.
In one line: A big fall in claims, but the smoothed trend is now rolling over.
- Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
- We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
- Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.
- A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
- …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
- Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.
- The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
- Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
- We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.
Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1.
Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this.
Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.
- The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
- ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.
Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.
Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.
Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.
- German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
- Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
- We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.
- Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
- The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
- Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.