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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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27 June 2022 Are Bond Markets Moving from Inflation to Growth Fears?

Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?

The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.

Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 June 2022 No Relief for the ECB the EZ Inflation Data

The EZ core inflation rate will remain near 4% over the summer; it could even surpass 4% in July. 

A sustained cut in Russian gas flows to Europe would send energy prices and inflation soaring, again. 

Is the ECB edging towards an explicit cap on bond spreads? More QE will be needed if it is. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2022 EZ GDP Growth will Slow Soon, but Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.

The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.

We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 May 2022 The ECB is Clear as Rain; the First Rate Hike will Come in July

The ECB is nailing its colours to the mast; the deposit rate will be hiked in July and September.

The euro is a decent predictor for import price inflation in some goods, but not for the core HICP.

Soaring PPI inflation points to sustained upside risks for core consumer goods inflation in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, May

In one line: Growth likely will rebound in Q2, but we still think a recession looms in H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, May 2022

In one line: An upside surprise, but threats still loom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Apr 2022 EZ Joblessness Falls; will Inflation Make us Look the Fools Again

  • EZ unemployment fell in February but a rise in the number on furlough poses risks to the outlook...
  • ...We still look for the jobless rate to fall gradually this year, to a record low of 6.5% by December.
  • More hot inflation data mark the last day of the ECB’s net asset purchases under PEPP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

25 Mar 2022 EZ Survey Data Stayed Resilient in March, For the Most Part

  • Household confidence in the euro area plunged in March, but business surveys held up.
  • Private sector activity was still expanding at a decent clip at the end of Q1, but storm clouds are gathering.
  • The policy rate at the SNB isn't going anywhere, but the bank will intervene in FX markets, if needed.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, March

In one line: Solid headlines, but geopolitical uncertainty and supply-side disruptions cast a dark shadow. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, March

In one line: Solid headlines, but geopolitical uncertainty and supply-side disruptions cast a dark shadow. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Mar 2022 Activity Gains Pace; the Labour Market Brushed-Off Omicron

  • Spain's and Italy's PMIs support our view that their growth is slowing in Q1, despite the February uptick.
  • The implosion of Russia's economy will not derail the pick-up in EZ GDP growth in Q2.
  • The labour market is on fire, but is still not stoking wage prices pressures.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Mar 2022 Swiss Economy Outperforms Again; Spanish Inflation Jumps

  • The Swiss economy was resilient in Q4; GDP ended the year 2.0% above its pre-pandemic level.
  • Growth will pick up, but inflation will remain low; the SNB will not hike rates with the ECB later this year.
  • Spanish inflation jumped to an eye-watering 7.4% in February; energy prices remain a wild card.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Feb 2022 EZ Inflation Data will Continue to Hold the ECB's Feet to the Fire

  • We still think EZ core inflation is on track to hit 3.0% in Q2, underpinning the hawkish shift at the ECB.
  • We now think the central bank will lift its deposit rate by 20bp in December, after ending QE in October.
  • Soft GfK consumer confidence data in Germany, but solid INSEE business sentiment numbers in France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Feb 2022 The Conflict in Ukraine Will Keep EZ Energy Inflation Elevated

  • The situation in Ukraine is unpredictable, but one thing is certain, energy inflation will remain hot.
  • Sanctions to curb the flow of energy from Russia to the EZ are the main economic threat.
  • The Bundesbank believes Germany has entered a technical recession; the survey data beg to differ.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Feb 2022 Surveys Suggest Activity is Holding Up Better than Expected

  • PMI data for February surprised on the upside; services activity is rebounding faster than expected.
  • We are raising our Q1 EZ GDP growth forecast, by 0.3pp, to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
  • Pricing intentions surged again, piling pressure on the ECB to unwind stimulus measures.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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