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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

supply

PM Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Solid headline, but real M1 growth is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB's 75bp Hike will be a One- Off; Expect 50bp in December

  • The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
  • We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
  • Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Deepening Downturn won't Deter Further ECB Rate Hikes this Year

The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.

The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.

The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q2 GDP & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: GDP will soon be falling; a rise in labour supply is lifting the unemployment rate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, June & ISTAT ESI, Italy, July

In one line: Money supply data support our call that the EZ is heading into a recession; the Italian economy started Q3 on the back foot.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 June 2022 Winter is Coming and the Eurozone Economy isn't Ready

The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.

We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.

This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: New Car Registrations, EU 27, May 2022

In one line: Sales rebounded m/m in May, but Q2 will be a write-off. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2022 EZ GDP Growth will Slow Soon, but Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.

The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.

We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, April

In one line: The trend in real M1 growth is now consistent with a recession in H2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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