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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

supply

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2021 #HereWeGoAgain: Covid is Once Again Haunting Markets

  • B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
  • French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply, October 2021

In one line: Decent headline, but real M1 growth is slowing sharply. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Nov 2021 Clouds Gather over Germany's Near-term Economic Outlook

  • German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.

    We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.

    German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

24 Nov 2021 Surging Virus Cases Outweigh Rising PMIs in our Q4 Outlook

  • The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
  • ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
  • GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

12 Nov 2021 EZ Households have Financial Firepower, but will they Use it?

  • EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
  • The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
  • ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

11 Nov 2021 Q3 GDP in Spain will be Revised Higher, but only Slightly

  • Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
  • An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
  • We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

  • GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
  • Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
  • Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

5 Nov 2021 More Evidence that German Manufacturing Hit a Wall in Q3

  • German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
  • Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east. 
  • The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

4 Nov 2021 Will Unemployment in the Eurozone Hit 6% by 2023?

  • EZ unemployment fell again in September, and survey data point to further improvement in Q4.
  • We think Eurozone unemployment will fall below 7% next year, hitting 6% by 2023.
  • The SNB is fine with EURCHF closing in on 1.05, but only for as long as inflation is rising.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

3 Nov 2021 No EU-wide Measures to Curb the Spike in Electricity Prices in Q4

  • The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
  • EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
  • It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Nov 2021 EZ GDP Recovered further in Q3, and Inflation is Still Running Hot

  • The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
  • France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
  • We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

28 Oct 2021 The ECB will Push Back Against Rising Rate Expectations Today

  • Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
  • We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
  • Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, September 2021

In one line: Nominal M1 is holding up, but inflation is sapping real growth. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Oct 2021 What Happened in the Eurozone Economy in Q3?

  • French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
  • Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
  • Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2021 If the Supply Side Can't Move, Demand will Have to Fall

  • The composite PMIs are still consistent with robust GDP growth, but risks are stacked to the downside.
  • If the PMIs are right, demand is now falling to match fixed supply; that means slower GDP growth.
  • We look for another soft IFO today, but next week's consumer sentiment data should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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