Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Mar 2022 Can the EU Replenish the Planned Cuts to Russian Gas Imports?

  • The EU will struggle to make up the committed cut in Russian gas imports from elsewhere this year...
  • ...As a result, supply/demand dynamics in the sector will remain tight and we see little respite for prices...
  • ...A full embargo on all Russian imports would lead to a further, and large, rise in gas prices.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, January

In one line: Amber alert; the slowdown in real M1 is accelerating. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Feb 2022 What Does a War in Ukraine Mean for EZ Energy Prices, and the ECB?

  • A new and more uncertain reality is emerging in Europe; defence spending will accelerate.
  • The ECB’s initial response to a war in Ukraine will be to pause, but the inflation challenge isn’t going away.
  • War in Ukraine risks another surge in oil and gas prices, boosting energy inflation.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Feb 2022 More Evidence that the ECB is About to Make a Hawkish Shift

  • Comments from Mr. Lane and Ms. Schnabel add to evidence of a hawkish shift in ECB policy.
  • French core inflation fell in January, but it will re- bound quickly, to 2.0%, where it will stay through Q3.
  • EZ construction fell in Q4, again, and consumer sentiment remained soft midway through Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Feb 2022 Growth is Slowing, Temporarily, but Employment is Looking Strong

  • Slowdowns in Germany and Austria weighed on the Eurozone economy in the fourth quarter…
  • …But employment rose strongly, consistent with robust surveys and monthly claims data.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit widened in December, thanks to soaring imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Feb 2022 The ECB Tries to Put the Genie Back in the Bottle; Will it Work?

  • The ECB is pushing back against the dramatic shift in forecasters’ expectations for tighter policy.
  • German core inflation fell only slightly in January; the core HICP rate will rise to 3.5% by April.
  • The Swiss don’t have an inflation problem, unlike their neighbour, despite the rise in prices in January.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

9 Feb 2022 The SNB will Stand Pat, even as the ECB Moves to Tighten

  • The ECB and SNB policy settings have been joined at the hip in the past...
  • ...But we don't think the SNB will follow the ECB in tightening policy this time around.
  • We look for CHF to appreciate vs the euro over the coming months, ending the year back at CHF 1.03.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Feb 2022 German Industrial Output Rose in Q4; But it is Still Lags New Orders

  • German industrial production rebounded in Q4, but not enough to reverse a terrible third quarter.
  • We look for a further increase in Q1, but the gap between output and new orders will remain wide.
  • Surveys point to a quick rebound in construction, but supply-side constraints remain a big challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, December

In one line: Stung by a plunge in construction; core manufacturing did better.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Feb 2022 The ECB Sets the Stage for Accelerated Taper, and Rate Hikes

  • The ECB is preparing markets for a hawkish policy shift in March; QE will end this year.
  • We now look for three rate hikes in the first half of 2023; in January, March and June.
  • The PMIs confirm that Omicron hit services hard in January, especially in southern Europe.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

3 Feb 2022 The ECB is in a Tight Spot, Sooner than We Anticipated

  • EZ inflation blew past expectations in January, leaving the ECB in a tight spot today.
  • Risks are tilted towards a quicker than expected withdrawal of QE; we look for a taper to zero in Q4.
  • The ECB's bank lending survey points to strong demand for credit, and banks are willing to lend.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

2 Feb 2022 EZ Unemployment is at a Record Low, and this is Just the Be ginning

  • German retail sales were hit hard by virus restrictions at the end of the fourth quarter…
  • …But the labour market is going from strength to strength; unemployment will fall below 5% soon.
  • Unemployment in the EZ hit a record low of 7% in December; it will fall much further this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Feb 2022 The EZ Recovery Slowed in Q4; Growth will Remain Weak in Q1

  • The EZ economy expanded by 0.3% q/q in Q4, in part due to a boost from the Italian economy.
  • Growth in both Italy and the EZ is slowing now, but will snap back in Q2.
  • EZ headline and core inflation fell in January, but remained high, and the latter will rebound quickly.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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