Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Economic Monitor
- Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome.
- Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to about 55 in Q4.
- Bank lending to non-financial firms is now rising again, slightly; the trend has slowed.
- The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
- ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
- No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024.
- The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention.
- Markets are worried about Evergrande—rightly—but contagion is limited, for now.
- Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
- Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
- The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.
Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.
Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.
Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
- Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
- Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
- We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.
- EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
- EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
- Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.
- Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend.
- Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less capital intensive industry...
- ...A correction may be on the way but strong business surveys mean that we remain optimistic.
- The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
- Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
- The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.
- The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
- The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
- Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.
- German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
- Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
- We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.
- The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment.
- Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is sideways.
- Spain should grow faster than elsewhere in Q3 and perhaps even Q4, but will continue to lag its peers
- Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
- The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
- Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.
- The Swiss economy had regained more of its Covid losses than the euro area as of Q2.
- We still expect it to complete its recovery in Q3, ahead of the EZ, and grow by 3.5% overall this year.
- The outperformance and incoming ECB PEPP taper will push up the CHF; a headache for the SNB.
- EZ manufacturing output is still hampered by supply-side woes, but it's not all bad news.
- Unemployment in the EZ fell further at the start of Q3; we think the good news will keep coming.
- SPD's lead in the German polls is startling, but not yet a game-changer for the final outcome.
- EZ inflation is running hot, and it will rise further in Q4; will markets and the ECB flinch?
- German unemployment fell further midway through Q3, and further improvement is in store.
- Consumers' spending, ex-services, in France dipped in July, but Q3 as a whole will be decent.
- Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
- PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
- The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.
- European birth rates have rebounded since the end of the 1990s, but remain below replacement levels.
- The rebound in German marriage and birth rates stands out; not much sign of a rebound elsewhere.
- Women are still postponing having their first child; that will continue to hold back total fertility rates.