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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

summer

23 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Deficit will Continue to Narrow, For Now

  • Services exports have held back the EZ services balance since June, despite the summer tourist season.
  • Risk aversion means EZ investors again dumped foreign assets in September; this will continue.
  • The rise in prices of durable goods items, which is partly driving core inflation higher, is broad-based.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Are the Largest EZ Economies Already Rationing Energy

We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.

Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.

This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2022 EZ Core Inflation is Peaking, but it will Remain High Throughout 2022

Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.

French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.

EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2022 Taking Stock of the Energy Situation in Europe, Again

Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.

The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.

A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2022 Sinking EZ Consumer Confidence Looks Grim, but this isn't the GFC

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is still falling, and we see little relief in the near term.

Household sentiment is consistent with our forecast for falling consumers’ spending in H2...

...But the slowdown won’t feel anywhere near as bad as in 08 and 11/12, when activity was crushed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2022 Tourism's Best Year Yet? Not Quite, Except Maybe in Spain.

Near-real-time data suggest that tourism activity is stabilising at levels lower than in 2019...

...But it should pick up pace soon, barring speed- bumps from strikes and technical issues at airports.

The risks to our GDP forecasts from tourism, and the services sector more generally, are to the upside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 June 2022 A Trip Down Memory Lane; What Does QE Sterilisation Mean?

The ECB’s sterilisation of SMP purchases in 2010 wouldn’t make as much sense today.

We think purchases under the new anti-fragmenta- tion tool will include some form of sterilisation...

...But full neutralisation of asset purchases as part of a backstop for spreads is not credible.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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