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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

summer

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Oct 2021 On the Meaning of "Transitory" Inflation in the Eurozone

  • Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
  • Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
  • Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

  • EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
  • Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
  • The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2021 How Quickly is EZ Core Inflation Rising? We Can't Yet be Sure

Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.

Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.

Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

  • The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
  • ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
  • We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2021 The Red Hot EZ Inflation Prints Have Arrived, as Expected

  • EZ inflation is running hot, and it will rise further in Q4; will markets and the ECB flinch?
  • German unemployment fell further midway through Q3, and further improvement is in store.
  • Consumers' spending, ex-services, in France dipped in July, but Q3 as a whole will be decent.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2021 EZ Core Inflation Leapt in August, due Mainly to Technical Factors

  • Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
  • PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
  • The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Aug 2021 Did the Eurozone Survey Data Soften Midway through Q3?

  • The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
  • Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
  • We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

  • VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
  • The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
  • We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2021 Are the Economic Risks from the Latest Virus Wave Still a Threat?

The spread of the Delta variant seems to be slowing, at least in the Big Four EZ economies...
...But the threat of new variants looms, and booster shots elsewhere aren't providing promising signals.
We still think GDP growth in Q3 will be faster than Q2, but uncertainty is now rising for Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2021 Is the Reflation Trade in Bonds Dead and Buried?

EZ bond yields have been dragged lower as investors have abandoned the reflation trade.
Idiosyncratic factors will weigh on bund yields in H2, but we still see room for a rise to -0.3-to-0.4% in Q4.
Energy imports, and goods demand from Eastern Europe, are weighing on Germany's trade surplus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.

We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.

Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus.
This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't bet the farm.
The IFO softened significantly in July, but it remains consistent with robust GDP growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed
to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to 0.9%, from 1.0% in May, also in line with the first estimate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2021 On the Hunt for Supply Pressures, and Reopening in the EZ CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 June 2021 We Expect a Dovish ECB today, but Difficult Decisions Loom in H2

The best way to explain the ECB's position, ahead of today's policy decision, is that the central bank has plenty of circumstantial evidence that a strong recovery has begun, but little hard data to substantiate the story.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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