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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.
French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.
EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.
Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.
The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.
A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.
The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.
This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.
With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is still falling, and we see little relief in the near term.
Household sentiment is consistent with our forecast for falling consumers’ spending in H2...
...But the slowdown won’t feel anywhere near as bad as in 08 and 11/12, when activity was crushed.
Near-real-time data suggest that tourism activity is stabilising at levels lower than in 2019...
...But it should pick up pace soon, barring speed- bumps from strikes and technical issues at airports.
The risks to our GDP forecasts from tourism, and the services sector more generally, are to the upside.
The ECB’s sterilisation of SMP purchases in 2010 wouldn’t make as much sense today.
We think purchases under the new anti-fragmenta- tion tool will include some form of sterilisation...
...But full neutralisation of asset purchases as part of a backstop for spreads is not credible.
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