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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

spending

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, February 2022

In one line: Pedestrian; sales likely fell by around 0.7% in Q1. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' spending & Inflation, France, Feb/Mar 2022

In one line: Spending, ex-services, fell in Q1; inflation is still running hot. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Mar 2022 EZ Consumers are Worried About Inflation, For Good Reason

  • Consumer confidence in the core is falling sharply, reflecting mainly worries of rising inflation.
  • EZ real wages are now falling, but savings will support spending in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
  • Fiscal support and a quicker reduction in household savings are the main upside risks to our baseline.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

17 Mar 2022 What will Europe's New Defence Spending Plans Mean for Growth?

  • A gradual increase in EZ defence outlays to 2% of GDP would triple spending between now and 2033.
  • We reckon such a shift would lift annual GDP growth by around 0.3pp over the next decade…
  • …But any near-term boost likely will be overwhelmed by higher inflation, crowding out private demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Mar 2022 High Inflation is Not Hitting EZ Household Consumption, Yet

  • Consumption had a rough start to Q1, as restric- tions were tightened at the end of December...
  • ...But things now are looking up and we think high inflation won’t derail the consumer recovery.
  • Volatility is the name of the game in markets for now; a return to pre-Ukraine normality is a long way off.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q4 2021

In one line: Pace of recovery slows but Switzerland continues to outperform. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Feb 2022 The EZ Economy is Staring Down the Barrel of Stagflation

  • Slowing real M1 growth points to downside risks for EZ GDP growth in the second half of the year.
  • The ECB will be worried about the impact on the economy from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine...
  • ...But clear upside risks to inflation mean that its hands are tied, unless sentiment collapses.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Inflation, France

In one line: Spending, ex-services, isn’t going anywhere, but inflation definitely is.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q4

In one line: Hit by falling consumers’ spending, but less so than initially feared. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, March

In one line: Soft; inflation is sapping incomes and purchasing intentions. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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