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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.
The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.
Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.
In one line: No longer falling, but still depressed.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
In one line: Pedestrian; sales likely fell by around 0.7% in Q1.
The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.
We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.
Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.
In one line: Spending, ex-services, fell in Q1; inflation is still running hot.
In one line: Better than we expected, but still soft overall.
In one line: Not pretty.
In one line: War in Ukraine weighs heavily on sentiment.
In one line: Pace of recovery slows but Switzerland continues to outperform.
In one line: Spending, ex-services, isn’t going anywhere, but inflation definitely is.
In one line: Hit by falling consumers’ spending, but less so than initially feared.
In one line: Soft; inflation is sapping incomes and purchasing intentions.
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