In one line: The downturn in industry will last a while yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still consistent with slowing GDP growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Green shoots are showing; retail confidence is on a tear.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI remains consistent with a bigger fall in GDP than we expect in Q4, despite rising in November.
- Price pressures have eased, supporting our call for an ECB pivot to slower rate hikes from next month.
- The EU-agreed gas price cap will work to our favour here too; preventing price hikes at times of stress.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A fall in GDP in Q4 seems a sure bet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Activity is still falling in Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ core goods inflation will rise a bit further in the near term, but services inflation should now ease.
- The reversal in margin pressure points to a sustained fall in EZ core inflation, but it will take a long time.
- We think core inflation will stay above 3% through the first half of 2023, maintaining pressure on the ECB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core will maintain pressure on the headline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hinting at a downward Q3 GDP revision
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Factory orders in Germany are starting to match the grim surveys; output is set for a big fall in Q4.
- Early evidence suggests that EZ industrial output was resilient at the end of the third quarter.
- The composite EZ PMI was revised up marginally in October, but still points to a recession ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upward revision nothing to write home about.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
- The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
- German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Activity in the EZ’s largest economy is shrinking at break-neck speed.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
- High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
- Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Much welcome relief from the French CPI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
