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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

services pmi

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, November

In one line: Green shoots are showing; retail confidence is on a tear.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The PMIs Still Suggest that a Q4 fall in EZ GDP is a Sure Bet

  • The PMI remains consistent with a bigger fall in GDP than we expect in Q4, despite rising in November.
  • Price pressures have eased, supporting our call for an ECB pivot to slower rate hikes from next month.
  • The EU-agreed gas price cap will work to our favour here too; preventing price hikes at times of stress.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Core Inflation Likely is now Falling, but the Downshift will be Slow

  • EZ core goods inflation will rise a bit further in the near term, but services inflation should now ease.
  • The reversal in margin pressure points to a sustained fall in EZ core inflation, but it will take a long time.
  • We think core inflation will stay above 3% through the first half of 2023, maintaining pressure on the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Point to a Big Q4 Fall in German Manufacturing

  • Factory orders in Germany are starting to match the grim surveys; output is set for a big fall in Q4.
  • Early evidence suggests that EZ industrial output was resilient at the end of the third quarter.
  • The composite EZ PMI was revised up marginally in October, but still points to a recession ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's €200B Energy Support is a Game-Changer for 2023

  • Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
  • The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
  • German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, October

In one line: Activity in the EZ’s largest economy is shrinking at break-neck speed.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Downturn is Intensifying, but Inflation Pressures Still Intense

  • PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
  • High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
  • Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October 2022

In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence