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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, June 2022

In one line: A solid finish to Q2 in manufacturing; net exports in services are soaring.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Composite PMIs, Eurozone, July

In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change the weak outlook. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2022 EZ Monitor This Week's Data will Set the Scene for the Incoming Recession

Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate. 

GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.

We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Climate, France, July 2022

In one line: Overall robust, but headline confidence is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, May 2022

In one line: Q2 was tough for EZ construction, Q3 will be more of the same. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2022 Fiscal Aid in Spain and Italy is Not Enough to Boost Consumption

Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.

The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.

Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2022 EURUSD is about to Hit Parity, and We See Little Reason to Buy

EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.

We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...

...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, May 2022

In one line: Net exports likely were a drag on growth in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 July 2022 Another Consensus-Beating CPI Print, But no 50bp Hike this Month

Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.

Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.

EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 June 2022 Spain's Outlook Is Better Than Italy's, Despite Higher Inflation

The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.

Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.

One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, June 2022

In one line: GDP growth will still be decent in Q2, but a recession is coming in H2.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: IFO, Germany, June & ISTAT ESI, Italy, June 2022

In one line: IFO remains recessionary; rise in IESI hides tanking consumer confidence.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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