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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Jan 2022 EZ Auto Sales and Capex Remain Weak, but Employment is Rising

  • EZ auto sales fell in 2021, again, though we suspect they rebounded in Q4, after a terrible Q3.
  • Investment by EZ auto-makers has fallen in line with weakening production, due to supply-side woes…
  • …But employment has rebounded strongly, pointing to underlying confidence in the future.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2022 Spain is On Track for 1.5% q/q Growth in Q4, a Positive Outlier

  • Stronger-than-expected industry and retail data lead us to revise up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain.
  • We now think GDP grew by 1.5% q/q, much quicker than in the other major EZ economies.
  • Solid Q4 growth increases the carry-over for 2022 growth forecasts, but Spain is still a laggard.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Jan 2022 German Industrial Production Came Back Strongly in Q4

  • German factory orders are running hotter than manufacturing production...
  • ...And the jump in manufacturing turnover points to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • Headline inflation in Germany was broadly stable in December, but the core rate rose further.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

4 Jan 2022 Omicron is Milder than Delta, but it will Still Hold Back the EZ in Q1

  • Omicron is less of a burden on hospitals than Delta, but surging cases will still lead to restrictions in Q1.
  • Warm weather and energy imports are driving a fall in natural gas prices; good news for consumers.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth points to a further fall in the EZ composite PMI in Q1, to about 52. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

13 Dec 2021 German Inflation is Running Hot; Industry in The Periphery Stutters

  • German core inflation will fall sharply in January, but then rebound; the HICP rate will stay sticky in 2022.
  • Spanish and Italian industrial production both fell at the start of Q4, in contrast to increases in the core...
  • ...We think industry will be a drag on GDP growth in Q4, just when risks to services activity are rising.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Nov 2021 Clouds Gather over Germany's Near-term Economic Outlook

  • German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.

    We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.

    German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

18 Nov 2021 EZ Inflation will Cool in Q1, but Keep a Close Eye on Services

  • Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
  • …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
  • Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

17 Nov 2021 We're Holding on to our Outlook for Q4; by the Skin of our Teeth

  • EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
  • We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
  • Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

16 Nov 2021 Italy set to Underperform Spain's Labour Market Recovery

  • EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
  • ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
  • We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

11 Nov 2021 Q3 GDP in Spain will be Revised Higher, but only Slightly

  • Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
  • An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
  • We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

2 Nov 2021 Italian Reforms are Coming; will they make a Difference to Growth?

  • Italy has a reputation for a slow judicial system, weak tax collection and low labour productivity...
  • ...But Draghi has pushed through reforms aimed at reversing these drags on the economy.
  • We are hopeful, but sceptical, about how much reform will happen before the next election, in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

20 Oct 2021 Construction in the EZ has St alled, but Should Rebound Slightly in Q4

  • EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
  • Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
  • A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

  • The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
  • …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
  • We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

  • We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
  • Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
  • Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

  • The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
  • ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
  • The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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