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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

savings

21 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor France's economy is resilient, but growth is slowing

  • The French economy is resilient, but the data tell a clear story of slowing growth, all the same.
  • Households in France will enjoy a real-income boost in H2, but a rise in savings will curb consumption.
  • We think GDP in France rose by 0.1% q/q in Q3, which will be followed by a 0.3% fall in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Windfall Taxes are a Risk to the Profit Outlook of EZ Banks

Higher inflation for longer will lead to higher interest rates, which will support banks’ interest margins.

This implies higher profits, which makes bank equities attractive right now.

But risks to the profit outlook remain in the form of windfall taxes and falling demand for loans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Swiss Economy won't be Unscathed by the EZ Recession

  • Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.5% in Q2, the same as in Q1, and more or less in line with the EZ aggregate.
  • The German recession will weigh on Swiss industry in H2, and consumers’ income is being squeezed.
  • We look for GDP growth broadly to stagnate in H2, but the SNB is still likely to hike rates further

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 July 2022 EZ Monitor Europe remains exposed to a quick end to Russian gas flows

Russian gas will soon flow to Europe again, but at a severely reduced rate; a full shutdown remains likely.

The IMF estimates that Europe will be short some 50bcm gas if Russian supplies are halted, at best.

Only demand compression, via higher prices and or rationing, solves this problem; it will sting.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2022 EURUSD is about to Hit Parity, and We See Little Reason to Buy

EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.

We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...

...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2022 No Wage-Price Spiral this Year, but Next Year Could be Different

Wages are rising across the Eurozone’s largest economies, but nowhere near as quickly as inflation.

The squeeze on incomes will ease over the coming months as inflation falls, but it will remain severe.

A wage-price spiral is a risk for markets and the ECB next year, even with ’normal’ real wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2022 How Can the EZ Avoid a Recession in the Next Few Quarters?

Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.

A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...

...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 June 2022 Spain's Outlook Is Better Than Italy's, Despite Higher Inflation

The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.

Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.

One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2022 Sinking EZ Consumer Confidence Looks Grim, but this isn't the GFC

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is still falling, and we see little relief in the near term.

Household sentiment is consistent with our forecast for falling consumers’ spending in H2...

...But the slowdown won’t feel anywhere near as bad as in 08 and 11/12, when activity was crushed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 June 2022 Are Bond Markets Moving from Inflation to Growth Fears?

Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?

The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.

Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 June 2022 Brace for Further Russian Gas Flow Cuts and Higher Inflation

Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.

This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...

...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2022 ECB Hikes Could Lift Mortgage Rates by 300bp Through 2023

Mortgage rates in the EZ tend to trend in line with the main ECB policy rates, so they will rise this year.

Around a fifth of mortgages incur a variable rate and so are sensitive to changes in ECB policy rates.

Households can withstand higher borrowing costs, but growth in house prices will slow significantly.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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