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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.
Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.
In one line: Higher prices are weighing on spending.
EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.
The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.
Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.
The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices.
More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least.
Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP.
In one line: Pedestrian; sales likely fell by around 0.7% in Q1.
In one line: Better than we expected, but still soft overall.
In one line: Slide in EZ car sales stalls, for now.
In one line: The readings in February and March will be much better.
In one line: Spending, ex-services, isn’t going anywhere, but inflation definitely is.
In one line: Ugly, and services spending certainly slumped further.
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