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In one line: Brace for a bigger fall in Q4.
In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good.
In one line: Imports will rollover as the economy heads for recession.
German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.
But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.
France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.
We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.
The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.
The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.
The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.
Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.
Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
In one line: Lifted by improving net trade with China, the UK and Russia.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
In one line: Households fear running out of energy this winter.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
Russian gas will soon flow to Europe again, but at a severely reduced rate; a full shutdown remains likely.
The IMF estimates that Europe will be short some 50bcm gas if Russian supplies are halted, at best.
Only demand compression, via higher prices and or rationing, solves this problem; it will sting.
The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.
The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.
Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.
EZ investor sentiment is sinking and excess liquidity is falling; this is a difficult environment for equities.
The good news is that valuations for EZ equities are attractive for investors with a medium-term horizon.
Relative valuations for defence equities have jumped since the war in Ukraine; this trend will continue.
Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.
The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.
A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.
EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.
We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...
...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.
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