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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

restaurants

24 Nov 2021 Surging Virus Cases Outweigh Rising PMIs in our Q4 Outlook

  • The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
  • ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
  • GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

  • German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
  • Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
  • Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

  • VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
  • The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
  • We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2021 We Remain Optimistic about the Reopening Upturn in Ser vices

The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter.
Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to come in Q3.
EZ retail sales jumped by 3.4% in Q2; growth will slow in Q3, but should remain robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2021 The Swiss Economy Entered Q3 on the Front Foot

Raft of Swiss data reaffirm our view that the economy is recovering quicker than the Eurozone.
The pick-up in Swiss inflation in July is nowhere near enough to set alarm bells off at the SNB...
... but a stronger franc all but cements the need for higher FX intervention.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive prices.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2021 Don't Despair over Poor EZ Retail Sales at the Start of Q2

 

For forecasters, including us, pinning their hopes on
a reopening-rebound in EZ Q2 GDP , chiefly thanks to rising consumers' spending, Friday's data were a slap in the face. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 June 2021 The Stage is Set for a Decent Rebound in Swiss GDP in Q2

In this Monitor, we are introducing our coverage of the Swiss economy, with a look at the recent Q1 GDP numbers, and an outlook for the rest of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 June 2021 The Rise in EZ Headline Inflation is Over, for a Brief Moment

Inflation in the euro area increased further midway through the second quarter. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 May 2021 The Devil is in the De tail in the Major Economies' Core CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data for April in Italy, and Friday's corresponding report in Spain, added to the evidence that EZ inflation is subject to significant national cross-currents,

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2021 Volatility will Cloud the Reopening Rebound in the EZ Core CPI, If Any

Yesterday's detailed CPI data in Germany and France for April confirmed that rising energy prices continued to lift headline inflation at the start of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence