Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2021 The Economic Upturn in the EZ Continued at the Start of Q3

The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3. The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2021 German Industry was Sluggish in H1, Blame Collapsing Auto Output

Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 June 2021 Eurozone Headline Inflation Fell only Marginally in June

Data yesterday revealed that inflation in Germany eased slightly at the end of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2021 Who's Afraid of the Taper? Not Many it Seems, for Now

From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum--no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines--but for markets it is...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2021 Don't Fear the Slowdown in EZ M1 Growth; the Trend is still Solid

Data on Friday showed that money supply growth in the Eurozone slowed further midway through Q2. Broad money, M3, rose by 8.4% year-over-year in May, easing from a 9.4% increase...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 June 2021 More Upbeat Survey Data in the EZ; Services are Driving the Upturn

Yesterday's national survey data in the core Eurozone economies added to the evidence that services are now driving the recovery.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 June 2021 EZ GDP Likely Rebounded Solidly in Q2, but Markets Fear Tapering

The evidence continues to support our own and consensus forecasts that the euro area economy is roaring back to life in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 June 2021 Moving Closer to the First Set of EU Recovery Fund Disbursements

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 June 2021 If the ECB's New Forecasts are Right, PEPP will be Axed in Q4

The ECB conformed to our expectations yesterday, guiding markets towards unchanged and ample accommodation through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 June 2021 Consumers will have to Step up to Deliver a Solid Q2 in the Eurozone

Data yesterday showed that the euro area economy did better than initially estimated at the start of the year, contrary to our expectations, though the main story didn't change.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2021 Don't Despair over Poor EZ Retail Sales at the Start of Q2

For forecasters, including us, pinning their hopes on a reopening-rebound in EZ Q2 GDP, chiefly thanks to rising consumers' spending, Friday's data were a slap in the face. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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