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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

recession

2 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Consumption will Pull Down Italian GDP in the Coming Quarters

Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.

We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.

Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Don't be Fooled by Robust Q3 German GDP data

The detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany paint too rosy a picture of growth; a recession is coming. 

German consumers’ spending has been resilient so far, but we think this will end in Q4 and Q1. 

We now see German growth of just 0.3% in 2023, but that’s still a lot better than the -0.7% consensus. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Downturn Confirmed; The EZ is Still on Course for a Recession

  • The second release of EZ Q3 GDP confirmed the downturn and a slowdown in productivity growth.
  • The nominal goods trade deficit narrowed in September; it will likely continue to do so in Q4.
  • Still, we think that net trade will contribute to a fall in GDP this quarter and next.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Point to a Big Q4 Fall in German Manufacturing

  • Factory orders in Germany are starting to match the grim surveys; output is set for a big fall in Q4.
  • Early evidence suggests that EZ industrial output was resilient at the end of the third quarter.
  • The composite EZ PMI was revised up marginally in October, but still points to a recession ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The 2s10s Bund Curve is about to Invert; What Happens Next

  • Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
  • The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
  • Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, July 2022

In one line: Stung by a plunge in Ireland, but the weakness was broad-based, overall.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Deepening Downturn won't Deter Further ECB Rate Hikes this Year

The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.

The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.

The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Swiss Economy won't be Unscathed by the EZ Recession

  • Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.5% in Q2, the same as in Q1, and more or less in line with the EZ aggregate.
  • The German recession will weigh on Swiss industry in H2, and consumers’ income is being squeezed.
  • We look for GDP growth broadly to stagnate in H2, but the SNB is still likely to hike rates further

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's all Downhill from Here for Eurozone GDP Growth

We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.

The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.

The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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