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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

real incomes

PM Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Solid headline, but real M1 growth is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Net Trade is A Wildcard for Our EZ Recession Call

  • Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
  • We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
  • Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Surge in Gas Prices Piles More Pressure on the ECB

Soft money data rounded up a week of gloomy leading indicators for EZ GDP last week.
ISTAT data lend support to our view that Italy, along with Germany, is leading the EZ downturn in H2.
The sour data spooked some ECB members, but the ECB is not about to turn dovish.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Equities will Struggle to Build on their Recent Gains

Equities want to believe in a monetary policy pivot; we don’t share their optimism.

Valuations are now attractive for EZ equities, but we still think earnings have further to fall.

Eurostoxx 50 will fall 4% by year-end; we see gains of 10% and 13% in ’23 and ’24, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor What Does Record-High Inflation Mean for the EZ Economic Data

The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.

Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.

Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail sales, Eurozone, June

In one line: Inflation is weighing heavily on sales heading into Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 July 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Economy is in a Tightening Stagflationary Vice

The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.

Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.

The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2022 Fiscal Aid in Spain and Italy is Not Enough to Boost Consumption

Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.

The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.

Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2022 No Wage-Price Spiral this Year, but Next Year Could be Different

Wages are rising across the Eurozone’s largest economies, but nowhere near as quickly as inflation.

The squeeze on incomes will ease over the coming months as inflation falls, but it will remain severe.

A wage-price spiral is a risk for markets and the ECB next year, even with ’normal’ real wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2022 How Can the EZ Avoid a Recession in the Next Few Quarters?

Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.

A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...

...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 June 2022 Winter is Coming and the Eurozone Economy isn't Ready

The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.

We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.

This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2022 What are the Neutral and Terminal Rates in the Eurozone

The neutral rate in the EZ is falling over time; it was likely negative immediately after the financial crisis.

We estimate the long-run neutral real rate to be 0.7% in the EZ, but the ECB policy rate won’t get that far.

We see the terminal ECB rate at 1.2-to-1.3%, 0.7-to- 0.6pp below current market-pricing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2022 The Devil is in the Detail in the Detailed Q1 EZ GDP Data

The Irish boost to EZ GDP growth in Q1 will have a reverse impact on growth in the second quarter.

We now expect EZ GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, 0.1pp lower than previously.

The risks to our forecast for a weak H2 are to the up-side, especially if the gas embargo remains elusive.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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