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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rate hike

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, October 2022

In one line: A new record low; labour market resilience will fade soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's A Close Call, But We Still Look for an ECB Pivot This Month

The fall in EZ inflation supports our view of an ECB pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes from this month.

But we now think a sticky core inflation rate will keep the Bank on its toes...

...We are raising our call for February’s hike to 50bp, up from 25bp previously.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October

In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October

In one line: An early hint of slower rate rises; the ECB is incentivising banks to repay TLTRO III funds. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It Looks Like a Peak in Inflation, but a 75bp Hike Next Week is a Lock

  • Record-high EZ inflation all but guarantees a 75bp rate hike from the ECB next week.
  • The fall in wholesale EZ gas prices is great news, but we doubt it will be sustained through winter.
  • Underlying inflation pressures in the EZ remain intense, but we look for softer data in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB's 75bp Hike will be a One- Off; Expect 50bp in December

  • The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
  • We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
  • Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2022

In one line: Back above zero; December’s rate hike will be smaller.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Playing a Risky Game, but it has no Choice

  • No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
  • But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
  • Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Taking no Prisoners; We see Another 75bp in October

  • The ECB goes big with a 75bp rate hike, and we are inclined to look for another 75bp in October.
  • We think the ECB wants to get its main policy rates to 2-to-2.5%, between now and Q1 next year.
  • The ECB now sees the EZ economy stalling in H2-22, but rates will continue to increase.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

  • We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
  • Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
  • Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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