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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

price increases

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment & Retail sales, Eurozone, December & November

In one line: ESI will decline again in January, decent retail sales won’t have prevented a slowdown in consumption growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Dec 2021 House prices in the EZ are Rocketing; Does it Matter?

  • Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
  • ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
  • ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

24 Nov 2021 Surging Virus Cases Outweigh Rising PMIs in our Q4 Outlook

  • The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
  • ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
  • GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

18 Nov 2021 EZ Inflation will Cool in Q1, but Keep a Close Eye on Services

  • Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
  • …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
  • Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Spanish Firms Disproportionately Impacted by Surging Gas Prices

  • Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
  • ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
  • Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

  • Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
  • ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
  • ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Sept 2021 The Swiss Economy is Outshining the EZ; will the CHF Rally Further?

  • The Swiss economy had regained more of its Covid losses than the euro area as of Q2.
  • We still expect it to complete its recovery in Q3, ahead of the EZ, and grow by 3.5% overall this year.
  • The outperformance and incoming ECB PEPP taper will push up the CHF; a headache for the SNB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2021 Including Housing Costs would lift EZ HICP Inflation, but not by Much

  • There are many statistical hurdles to overcome to include housing costs into the EZ HICP...
  • ...A rough & ready estimate suggests inflation would have been 0.3pp higher, on average, since 2011.
  • Even if house price growth continues to accelerate, we doubt it will lead to tighter monetary policy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.

We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.

Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2021 A Sneak-Peek at the Likely Pace of EZ GDP growth in H1 2022

Robust M1 growth points to solid GDP growth in the Eurozone, once the dust settles from reopening.
Loan growth is slowing, but that's mainly due to base effects; the underlying trend remains robust. 
Non-financial firms are substituting short-term for long-term lending, a good sign for investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence