Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The first round of Italy's presidential race starts to- day; it could be a long one.
- Our base case is for a win for Mr. Draghi, and we suspect an early election will be avoided.
- BTP spreads will remain contained if the status quo is preserved; anything else would see a sell-off.
- Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
- Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
- An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.
- Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
- Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
- The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.
- Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
- Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
- Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.
- The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
- EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
- It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
- A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
- Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.
- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1.
Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this.
Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.
Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.
Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.
Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.
- Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
- Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
- We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.