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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.
The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.
Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.
Wages are rising across the Eurozone’s largest economies, but nowhere near as quickly as inflation.
The squeeze on incomes will ease over the coming months as inflation falls, but it will remain severe.
A wage-price spiral is a risk for markets and the ECB next year, even with ’normal’ real wage growth.
Italy’s budget deficit will narrow further this year, but it will stay wider than policymakers expect.
The government has lowered its expectation for the impact of EU recovery funds; it’s still too high.
Germany’s push for the return of the SGP is falling on deaf ears; it won’t come back in the same form.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
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