Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

policymakers

6 Sept 2021 The Balance of Evidence Still Points to a Robust Q3 in the EZ

  • Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
  • The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
  • Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2021 Is the Reflation Trade in Bonds Dead and Buried?

EZ bond yields have been dragged lower as investors have abandoned the reflation trade.
Idiosyncratic factors will weigh on bund yields in H2, but we still see room for a rise to -0.3-to-0.4% in Q4.
Energy imports, and goods demand from Eastern Europe, are weighing on Germany's trade surplus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2021 All Set for Record-Busting Q3 GDP Growth in the EZ Economy

We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions.
We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the carry-over into 2022 will be solid.
Our new Q3 forecasts are broadly in line with the consensus; all set for a spectacular quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 EZ Equity Investors Can't Look to the Macro Data for Help in H2

The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well.
Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts expect, they still aren't cheap.
Political risks in the G7 are now concentrated in Europe; next year's elections in France loom large

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2021 Who's Afraid of the Taper? Not Many it Seems, for Now

From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum—no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines—but for markets it is binary.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2021 Don't Fear the Slowdown in EZ M1 Growth; the Trend is still Solid

Data on Friday showed that money supply growth in the Eurozone slowed further midway through Q2. Broad money, M3, rose by 8.4% year-over-year in May, easing from a 9.4% increase in April.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2021 Conditions have Never Been Better for Equities, but Risks Loom in H2

EZ equities have so far delivered the goods in 2021. The MSCI EU, ex-UK, is up just under 11% year-to-date, excluding dividends.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 May 2021 The ECB Will Soon be Discussing When and How to Slow PEPP

By all accounts, the ECB's promise in March to conduct PEPP purchases at a "significantly higher pace" through Q2 is turning out to be a damp squib.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Apr 2021 The EZ Manufacturing Upturn Continues, But at a Slower Pace

The upturn in euro area manufacturing stalled midway through the first quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Apr 2021 Is the ECB Trying to Sell Markets a Dummy on PEPP Purchases?

A month ago—see here—the ECB promised investors that PEPP purchases in Q2 would be "conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year", in response to lingering near-term uncertainty in the economy, and the risk of "premature tightening of financing conditions". 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Mar 2021 An Increase in PEPP Purchases is Coming, But Don't Expect a Surge

We are sympathetic if euro area fixed income investors are slightly confused about the ECB's intentions.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Mar 2021 The ECB is Getting Worried About Rising Yields; PEPP to Accelerate?

Last week's speeches from key ECB officials provide clear evidence that the governing council is now slightly concerned about the increase in bond yields. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Feb 2021 Equities are Still Detached from the Economy, for Good Reasons

Today's advance PMI data for February will confirm the status quo in the euro area economy. We reckon the composite EZ index dipped slightly, to 46.0 from 47.8 in January, driven by small declines in both services and manufacturing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault,