Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
policymakers
- We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
- The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
- Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
- Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
- Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
- Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
- Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
- Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
- Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
- But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
- Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
