Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Ownership data suggest Spanish households are most exposed to rising mortgage rates.
- But even in France, where fixed-rate mortgages are most common, households are not immune.
- Still, a raft of insolvencies will be kept at bay by fiscal policy and bank mortgage relief, even in Spain.
- Economists’ forecasts for ECB policy rates beyond Q1 next year lack imagination, for good reason.
- A solid labour market and fiscal stimulus support the ECB’s sustained departure from the zero bound.
- Our new forecasts see a medium-term ECB policy rate at 1.8-to 2.0%, pointing to cuts in H1-2024.
- Swiss inflation fell again in October, and all signs point to it sliding below the SNB’s estimates in Q4.
- We look for the SNB to hike just once more, taking the key policy rate to only 1.0%.
- The EZ labour market took the slowdown in Q3 on the chin, but surveys suggest resilience won’t last.
- The ECB lifts its deposit and refinancing rates by 75bp, hinting at a smaller hike in December.
- The retrospective change in TLTRO III conditions is a bad look for the ECB, but it likely was necessary.
- The slide in consumer confidence has ended; but don’t expect a sustained recovery until after winter.
- The ECB will hike its deposit and refinancing rates by 75bp this week; anything else would be a shock.
- We think this is the last 75bp hike in this cycle, but we doubt the ECB will confirm this on Thursday.
- The ECB is under pressure to announce a new policy on reserve remuneration; the devil is in the detail.
- We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
- The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
- Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.
- Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
- The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
- Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.
- The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
- Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
- Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much.
- The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
- We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
- Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.
In one line: Back above zero; December’s rate hike will be smaller.
- The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
- Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
- Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.
- A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
- Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
- Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.
- Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
- Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
- Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.
- No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
- But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
- Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.
- The rise in inflation since the SNB’s last meeting means it will surely raise rates on September 22.
- The ECB went big last week; the SNB will follow suit as it seems happy with current franc strength.
- In Q4 we think the SNB will hike by 50bp, much less than the 125bp we expect from the ECB.
- The ECB goes big with a 75bp rate hike, and we are inclined to look for another 75bp in October.
- We think the ECB wants to get its main policy rates to 2-to-2.5%, between now and Q1 next year.
- The ECB now sees the EZ economy stalling in H2-22, but rates will continue to increase.
In one line: More tightening on the way.
In one line: Punchy, and more rate hikes are coming.
- We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
- Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
- Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.
- When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
- Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.