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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2023

In one line: CS problem is solved as far as the SNB is concerned; fight against inflation continues.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2023

In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

  • Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
  • ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
  • We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Southern Europe Prevails on EU Energy Policy, Again

  • The EU’s new gas price cap is an insurance policy against further price surges; it will not lower prices...
  • ...As a result, its impact on inflation will be nil in the absence of a renewed jump in wholesale costs.
  • EZ current account data show that the EZ terms of trade shock from the war in Ukraine is easing, a bit.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Tighter-for-Longer ECB Policy Means Slower EZ GDP Growth

  • Tighter-for-longer ECB policy leads us to downgrade our GDP estimates, through 2024.
  • We now look for GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, both are 0.3pp lower than previously.
  • Economic growth should pick up in 2025, as the ECB will now also likely cut rates further in 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, December

In one line: ECB hawks to markets; “we’re the captain now”.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q4 2022

In one line: SNB pivots but signals more is to come; we have added another hike into the cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Fiscal Aid will Contain Mortgage Defaults; Where are Risks Highest

  • Ownership data suggest Spanish households are most exposed to rising mortgage rates.
  • But even in France, where fixed-rate mortgages are most common, households are not immune.
  • Still, a raft of insolvencies will be kept at bay by fiscal policy and bank mortgage relief, even in Spain.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Rising ECB Rates Look Durable, but We See Two 25bp Cuts in 2024

  • Economists’ forecasts for ECB policy rates beyond Q1 next year lack imagination, for good reason.
  • A solid labour market and fiscal stimulus support the ECB’s sustained departure from the zero bound.
  • Our new forecasts see a medium-term ECB policy rate at 1.8-to 2.0%, pointing to cuts in H1-2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Swiss Inflation is Falling, Fast; the EZ Labour Market is Still Resilient

  • Swiss inflation fell again in October, and all signs point to it sliding below the SNB’s estimates in Q4.
  • We look for the SNB to hike just once more, taking the key policy rate to only 1.0%.
  • The EZ labour market took the slowdown in Q3 on the chin, but surveys suggest resilience won’t last.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB Policy Pivot is On, But it Will be a Small One, at First

  • The ECB lifts its deposit and refinancing rates by 75bp, hinting at a smaller hike in December.
  • The retrospective change in TLTRO III conditions is a bad look for the ECB, but it likely was necessary.
  • The slide in consumer confidence has ended; but don’t expect a sustained recovery until after winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Look for 75bp from the ECB this Week, as does Everyone Else

  • The ECB will hike its deposit and refinancing rates by 75bp this week; anything else would be a shock.
  • We think this is the last 75bp hike in this cycle, but we doubt the ECB will confirm this on Thursday.
  • The ECB is under pressure to announce a new policy on reserve remuneration; the devil is in the detail.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The 2s10s Bund Curve is about to Invert; What Happens Next

  • Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
  • The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
  • Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB's 75bp Hike will be a One- Off; Expect 50bp in December

  • The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
  • We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
  • Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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