Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

pmis

EZ Datanote: German Unemployment & Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs, October 2022

In one line: Resilience in Germany’s labour market; EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, October

In one line: Activity in the EZ’s largest economy is shrinking at break-neck speed.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMIs for September were Ugly, and they will be Worse in Q4

  • The EZ PMIs weakened further in September, and we fear further declines lie ahead.
  • Industrial output in French transport equipment jumped by 16% in August; the recovery looks real.
  • German net exports of goods fell in Q3, but we think overall net trade rose, due to falling services imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Surge in Gas Prices Piles More Pressure on the ECB

Soft money data rounded up a week of gloomy leading indicators for EZ GDP last week.
ISTAT data lend support to our view that Italy, along with Germany, is leading the EZ downturn in H2.
The sour data spooked some ECB members, but the ECB is not about to turn dovish.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Deepening Downturn won't Deter Further ECB Rate Hikes this Year

The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.

The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.

The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Equities will Struggle to Build on their Recent Gains

Equities want to believe in a monetary policy pivot; we don’t share their optimism.

Valuations are now attractive for EZ equities, but we still think earnings have further to fall.

Eurostoxx 50 will fall 4% by year-end; we see gains of 10% and 13% in ’23 and ’24, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence