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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
In one line: Germany is now in a technical recession.
In one line: Germany is now in a technical recession.
The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.
We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.
This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.
In one line: Gas flow cuts hit the EZ’s manufacturing powerhouse.
A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.
We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.
The EU finally agrees on a Russian oil embargo, but pipeline oil to Eastern Europe will keep flowing.
We now see a real risk of panic at the ECB; the deposit rate will be at zero by July.
Revised data show that Italy’s economy actually grew in Q1 while Swiss GDP beat expectations.
Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.
The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.
We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.
We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.
Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.
This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.
In one line: Solid; services are expanding strongly
In one line: Solid; services are expanding strongly
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
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