- Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
- The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
- Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Signs of a peak in momentum, but enough to support strong Q3 growth forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing output is still hampered by supply-side woes, but it's not all bad news.
- Unemployment in the EZ fell further at the start of Q3; we think the good news will keep coming.
- SPD's lead in the German polls is startling, but not yet a game-changer for the final outcome.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slower orders should ease some pressure on the supply side.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
- PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
- The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
- Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
- We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Orders recover from May’s plunge; turnover data point to another soft industrial output reading in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter.
Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to come in Q3.
EZ retail sales jumped by 3.4% in Q2; growth will slow in Q3, but should remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The recovery continued at the start of Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Raft of Swiss data reaffirm our view that the economy is recovering quicker than the Eurozone.
The pick-up in Swiss inflation in July is nowhere near enough to set alarm bells off at the SNB...
... but a stronger franc all but cements the need for higher FX intervention.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but firms have maxed out capacity utilisation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3.
The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3 forecast.
The EZ budget deficit remained wide in Q1, but it will come down as the economy recovers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recovery continued in Q3, but concerns about the Delta variant are rising and supply issues remain.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The small fall is no major concern.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Judging by the questions we're receiving from
readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome
of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors' minds.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Activity was stronger than initially thought in June, but third-wave risk is rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Industry in the euro area remained red hot at the end of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still very strong, but the headline likely is now peaking.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
