In one line: Still pointing to resilience, despite downward revision.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Supply chain issues are easing but EZ industrial output will still fall in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Now points to stagnation but leading indicators suggest it will fall again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The manufacturing downturn is easing but has further to run.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still consistent with a 1-to-1.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The fall in German activity eased at year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The downturn in industry will last a while yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI remains consistent with a bigger fall in GDP than we expect in Q4, despite rising in November.
- Price pressures have eased, supporting our call for an ECB pivot to slower rate hikes from next month.
- The EU-agreed gas price cap will work to our favour here too; preventing price hikes at times of stress.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A fall in GDP in Q4 seems a sure bet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Activity is still falling in Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Factory orders in Germany are starting to match the grim surveys; output is set for a big fall in Q4.
- Early evidence suggests that EZ industrial output was resilient at the end of the third quarter.
- The composite EZ PMI was revised up marginally in October, but still points to a recession ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upward revision nothing to write home about.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
- The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
- German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
- High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
- Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
- Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
- Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
- Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
- Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
