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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

pmi

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, February 2023

In one line: Still pointing to resilience, despite downward revision. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, EZ, Feb & Unemployment, Germany, Feb

In one line: Supply chain issues are easing but EZ industrial output will still fall in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, January 2023

In one line: Now points to stagnation but leading indicators suggest it will fall again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, EZ, January

In one line: The manufacturing downturn is easing but has further to run. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, December 2022

In one line: Still consistent with a 1-to-1.5% q/q fall in GDP in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The PMIs Still Suggest that a Q4 fall in EZ GDP is a Sure Bet

  • The PMI remains consistent with a bigger fall in GDP than we expect in Q4, despite rising in November.
  • Price pressures have eased, supporting our call for an ECB pivot to slower rate hikes from next month.
  • The EU-agreed gas price cap will work to our favour here too; preventing price hikes at times of stress.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Point to a Big Q4 Fall in German Manufacturing

  • Factory orders in Germany are starting to match the grim surveys; output is set for a big fall in Q4.
  • Early evidence suggests that EZ industrial output was resilient at the end of the third quarter.
  • The composite EZ PMI was revised up marginally in October, but still points to a recession ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's €200B Energy Support is a Game-Changer for 2023

  • Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
  • The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
  • German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Downturn is Intensifying, but Inflation Pressures Still Intense

  • PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
  • High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
  • Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October 2022

In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence