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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.
Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.
EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.
In one line: Will EZ manufacturing ever see the light at the end of the tunnel?
The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.
Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.
One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.
Near-real-time data suggest that tourism activity is stabilising at levels lower than in 2019...
...But it should pick up pace soon, barring speed- bumps from strikes and technical issues at airports.
The risks to our GDP forecasts from tourism, and the services sector more generally, are to the upside.
Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?
The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.
Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.
The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.
We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.
This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.
Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.
This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...
...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.
The ECB’s sterilisation of SMP purchases in 2010 wouldn’t make as much sense today.
We think purchases under the new anti-fragmenta- tion tool will include some form of sterilisation...
...But full neutralisation of asset purchases as part of a backstop for spreads is not credible.
In one line: Activity falls in April; outlook sours further.
Industrial production in Germany rebounded in April, but a fall in Q2 as a whole is virtually guaranteed.
Rebounds in services and net trade should drive a Q2 increase in German GDP, by around 0.5%.
We think German GDP will rise by 1.4% and 1.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, below the consensus.
A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.
We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.
In one line: Manufacturing output still sluggish; EU oil embargo won’t help.
The EU finally agrees on a Russian oil embargo, but pipeline oil to Eastern Europe will keep flowing.
We now see a real risk of panic at the ECB; the deposit rate will be at zero by July.
Revised data show that Italy’s economy actually grew in Q1 while Swiss GDP beat expectations.
Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.
We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.
Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.
We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.
Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.
This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.
In one line: Still consistent with an acceleration in GDP growth in Q2.
In one line: Manufacturing is no longer contracting but services still leads the way.
The EZ’s current account plunged to a deficit at the end of Q1, and it will likely stay there in Q2.
EZ portfolio outflows are plunging, reflecting rising economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Construction in the euro area performed solidly in Q1, but it will slow sharply in Q2.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
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