Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
- But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
- The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.
German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.
We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.
German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.
- The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
- …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
- We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.
- The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
- ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
- GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
- …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
- Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.
- EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
- We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
- Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.
- EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
- ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
- We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.
- The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
- In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
- The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.
- EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
- The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
- ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.
- Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
- An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
- We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.
- Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
- Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
- Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.
- GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
- Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
- Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.
- EZ unemployment fell again in September, and survey data point to further improvement in Q4.
- We think Eurozone unemployment will fall below 7% next year, hitting 6% by 2023.
- The SNB is fine with EURCHF closing in on 1.05, but only for as long as inflation is rising.
- The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
- France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
- We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.
- French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
- Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
- Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened
- We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
- Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
- …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.
- Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
- Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
- …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.
- EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
- Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
- A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.
- EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
- The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
- Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.