Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

  • A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
  • The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2021 The Balance of Evidence Still Points to a Robust Q3 in the EZ

  • Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
  • The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
  • Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Sept 2021 The Swiss Economy is Outshining the EZ; will the CHF Rally Further?

  • The Swiss economy had regained more of its Covid losses than the euro area as of Q2.
  • We still expect it to complete its recovery in Q3, ahead of the EZ, and grow by 3.5% overall this year.
  • The outperformance and incoming ECB PEPP taper will push up the CHF; a headache for the SNB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, June 2021

In one line: Outperforming despite June’s fall and limited signs of a recovery in autos. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, June 2021

In one line: Boosted by a leap in exports; the services surplus seem to be rebounding too. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, June 2021

In one line: Still trailing the surveys and new orders but green shoots are showing in the auto sector. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Aug 2021 Industry in the Core is Not Going Anywhere

German factory orders surged in June, more than reversing May's plunge ...
... But turnover data point to a weak end to Q2 for industry; we look for a 0.5% monthly fall in June.
French industry continued to tread water; even though car output rose for the first time this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2021 We Remain Optimistic about the Reopening Upturn in Ser vices

The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter.
Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to come in Q3.
EZ retail sales jumped by 3.4% in Q2; growth will slow in Q3, but should remain robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, June 2021

In one line: More evidence that consumption drove the rebound in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2021 All Set for Record-Busting Q3 GDP Growth in the EZ Economy

We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions.
We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the carry-over into 2022 will be solid.
Our new Q3 forecasts are broadly in line with the consensus; all set for a spectacular quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2021 The Swiss Economy Entered Q3 on the Front Foot

Raft of Swiss data reaffirm our view that the economy is recovering quicker than the Eurozone.
The pick-up in Swiss inflation in July is nowhere near enough to set alarm bells off at the SNB...
... but a stronger franc all but cements the need for higher FX intervention.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, June

In one line: A strong finish to a solid Q2; Q3 likely will be a bit slower, but robust overall. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.

We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.

Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2021 Taking Stock of Italy's Economy in Q2; It's Good News

We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May—see here—and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 July 2021 EZ Manufacturing is Being Held Back by Weakness in Autos

Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, July 2021 and EZ Retail Sales, May 2021

In one line: Investor-expectations are now falling; EZ retail sales rebounded solidly in May. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 July 2021 The ECB Probably will Come up with a New Inflation Target in Q3

Judging by the questions we're receiving from
readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome
of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors' minds.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2021 How to get a Better Sense of what is Happening in EZ Services

We recently wrote about the prospects of a reopening leap in core inflation—see here—as the restrictions are eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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