Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
- …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
- Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.
- EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
- Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
- A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.
- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
- The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
- ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
- The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.
- The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
- Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
- We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
- EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
- EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
- Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.
EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.
We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.
Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.
The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review—see here—ahead of the planned announcement in September.
Friday's headline data in the French economy weren't pretty. First, the third and final Q1 GDP estimate was revised down by 0.5pp, to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that the economy fell into recession in Q4 and Q1.
Yesterday's INSEE surveys in France complemented the upbeat IFO in Germany earlier in the week.
Yesterday's two key economic reports provided a snapshot of German's economy at two very different points in time.
Friday's advance GDP data in the euro area largely conformed to our expectations.
The upturn in euro area manufacturing stalled midway through the first quarter.