In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but we remain confident that growth is slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ imports of Russian oil and gas have dropped, but they remain well above zero...
- ...The EU has made up more of the shortfall left by Russian energy in oil than in gas.
- Filling gas storages next year will come at a higher price, especially if activity in Asia rebounds.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
- High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
- Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Record-high EZ inflation all but guarantees a 75bp rate hike from the ECB next week.
- The fall in wholesale EZ gas prices is great news, but we doubt it will be sustained through winter.
- Underlying inflation pressures in the EZ remain intense, but we look for softer data in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
- Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
- Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hit by falling output in energy-intensive sectors and construction.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Much welcome relief from the French CPI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German core HICP inflation jumped to just under 5% in September; we think this is the peak.
- Germany is readying €200B to support shielding the economy from rising energy prices this winter.
- Risks are tilted to the upside for today's EZ CPI data; we see the headline at 10%, and the core at 5%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sky-high energy bills are forcing consumers to forgo other spending.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
- Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
- Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
- Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
- Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy inflation is falling, but food and core inflation are still climbing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
- Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
- Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
