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In one line: Still hot; core inflation will stay above 3% through Q3, at least.
EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.
In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...
...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.
EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.
Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.
But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.
German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.
Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.
Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.
In one line: Higher prices are weighing on spending.
In one line: Activity picked up pace in April, will the new Russian oil ban reverse this?
Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.
Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.
The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.
In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
In one line: Another rise, despite a confirmed fall in energy inflation.
EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.
All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.
We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.
EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...
...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.
We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.
We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.
Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?
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