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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil prices

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, November 2022

In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe is Still Importing Russian Energy, but the Share is Falling

  • EZ imports of Russian oil and gas have dropped, but they remain well above zero...
  • ...The EU has made up more of the shortfall left by Russian energy in oil than in gas.
  • Filling gas storages next year will come at a higher price, especially if activity in Asia rebounds.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Downturn is Intensifying, but Inflation Pressures Still Intense

  • PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
  • High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
  • Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It Looks Like a Peak in Inflation, but a 75bp Hike Next Week is a Lock

  • Record-high EZ inflation all but guarantees a 75bp rate hike from the ECB next week.
  • The fall in wholesale EZ gas prices is great news, but we doubt it will be sustained through winter.
  • Underlying inflation pressures in the EZ remain intense, but we look for softer data in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October 2022

In one line: A glimmer of hope, but more evidence is needed to call a bottom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Industrial Output Struggled in Q3, Despite a Decent August

  • EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
  • Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
  • Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, August 2022.

In one line: Hit by falling output in energy-intensive sectors and construction.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Likely Reached 10% in September, with 5% on the Core

  • German core HICP inflation jumped to just under 5% in September; we think this is the peak.
  • Germany is readying €200B to support shielding the economy from rising energy prices this winter.
  • Risks are tilted to the upside for today's EZ CPI data; we see the headline at 10%, and the core at 5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, October 202

In one line: Sky-high energy bills are forcing consumers to forgo other spending.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Crashed at the Start of the Third Quarter

  • The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
  • Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
  • Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Energy inflation is falling, but food and core inflation are still climbing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe Faces Difficult Trade-Offs on Energy as Winter Approaches

  • The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
  • Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
  • Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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