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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

new orders

7 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Point to a Big Q4 Fall in German Manufacturing

  • Factory orders in Germany are starting to match the grim surveys; output is set for a big fall in Q4.
  • Early evidence suggests that EZ industrial output was resilient at the end of the third quarter.
  • The composite EZ PMI was revised up marginally in October, but still points to a recession ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August 2022

In one line: Lost in translation due to volatility in aerospace orders.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Net Trade is A Wildcard for Our EZ Recession Call

  • Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
  • We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
  • Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, July 2022

In one line: No signs that the gas price cap is helping industrial firms yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

  • We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
  • Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
  • Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, July 2022

In one line: Still-falling, but hit by a plunge in consumer goods in July.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Deepening Downturn won't Deter Further ECB Rate Hikes this Year

The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.

The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.

The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor If polls are right, Italy will soon get a right-wing government

If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.

This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.

Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, June 2022

In one line: Demand is softening; production fell by less than we feared in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Swiss Inflation will Peak in August; will Spanish GDP Slow in Q3?

We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.

Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...

...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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