13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Mar 2022 EZ Industry is Unlikely to Gain Much Momentum This Year

• EZ industry has moved sideways since the start of 2021, as supply constraints held back output.
• There are signs that higher energy costs are having a dampening affect on the most exposed sectors.
• The war in Ukraine risks exacerbating this drag, further disrupting global supply chains.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EZ Industrial production & ZEW

In one line: Industry starts the year on weak footing & war in Ukraine clouds outlook; investor sentiment nosedives in March. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, January 2022

In one line: Output rebounds and surveys point to more solid readings ahead. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Feb 2022 EZ Manufacturing Softened in Q4, but is Primed for a Jump in Q1

• EZ industrial production fell again in Q4, but a rebound is underway; Q1 should be solid overall.
• Output in the EZ auto sector snapped back in Q4; we're hoping for more of the same in Q1.
• A surge in EZ demand for Chinese manufacturing goods is the main driver of the trade deficit in goods.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Jan 2022 EZ Auto Sales and Capex Remain Weak, but Employment is Rising

• EZ auto sales fell in 2021, again, though we suspect they rebounded in Q4, after a terrible Q3.
• Investment by EZ auto-makers has fallen in line with weakening production, due to supply-side woes…
• …But employment has rebounded strongly, pointing to underlying confidence in the future.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Dec 2021 Factory Orders in Germany are Falling, but Output is Rebounding

• Factory orders in Germany crashed in October, pegged back by a plunge in large orders…
• …But turnover jumped, by 3.6% on the month, pointing to a consensus-beating production report today.
• German manufacturing likely will do well in Q4, but the virus is now a severe risk for services.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

• GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
• Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
• Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone