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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

monetary policy

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Jan 2022 Draghi's Departure Wouldn't Change Italy's Outlook, Much

  • Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
  • Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
  • An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Jan 2022 What can Investors Expect from EZ Equities in a Post-Virus World?

  • Valuations point to subpar returns for euro area large-cap equities in the post-pandemic expansion.
  • Equities in Spain and Italy are priced for average returns of around 10% in the next five years…
  • …The corresponding numbers for German and French equities are just 5% and 2½%, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Jan 2022 German Industrial Production Came Back Strongly in Q4

  • German factory orders are running hotter than manufacturing production...
  • ...And the jump in manufacturing turnover points to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • Headline inflation in Germany was broadly stable in December, but the core rate rose further.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Dec 2021 Supply Chain Issues will Continue to Weigh on EZ Output in 2022

  • Supply bottlenecks are now easing, but likely will remain a challenge at the start of next year.
  • Rising energy costs and new virus restrictions are the key risks to manufacturing in the near term.
  • The virus might also drive more long-lasting distortions between supply and demand.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

17 Dec 2021 EZ Monetary Stimulus is Set to Slow Next Year, Virus Permitting

The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.

ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.

The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q4

In one line: Policy to stay on hold for a while yet. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Dec 2021 Expect Another "No Change" at SNB's Meeting This Week

Higher inflation recently has allowed the SNB to tolerate a much stronger franc than in the past.
We expect the Bank to keep all policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.
But falling inflation and a stronger franc heading into 2022 will force it to ramp up CHF sales soon.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

14 Dec 2021 Wage Growth in the EZ Set to Accelerate in 2022, We Think

All signs point to stronger EZ wage growth next year, but it won't be easy to tell in real time.
Negotiated wage growth is still slowing, but the ECB’s preferred compensation measure is firming.
The trend in unemployment points to negotiated wage growth rising towards 3% next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

10 Dec 2021 Real Net Exports in Germany are Rebounding, We Think

  • Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
  • Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
  • The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Nov 2021 Will Bund Yields Rise to Zero Next Year, If the Virus is Contained, Yes

  • Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
  • ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
  • The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

16 Nov 2021 Italy set to Underperform Spain's Labour Market Recovery

  • EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
  • ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
  • We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

9 Nov 2021 Markets are Listening to the ECB, but Still Expect a Hike in 2022

  • Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
  • Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
  • Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

4 Nov 2021 Will Unemployment in the Eurozone Hit 6% by 2023?

  • EZ unemployment fell again in September, and survey data point to further improvement in Q4.
  • We think Eurozone unemployment will fall below 7% next year, hitting 6% by 2023.
  • The SNB is fine with EURCHF closing in on 1.05, but only for as long as inflation is rising.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

29 Oct 2021 Either Markets aren't Listening to the ECB, or they Don't Believe it

  • Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
  • A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
  • Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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