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HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.
The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.
Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.
The ECB did not use its entire PEPP envelope and diverged from the capital key also in the APP.
Reinvestments will be used flexibly to cap spreads; rumours suggest cross-country purchases started.
Our estimates point to a maximum of €10B worth of PEPP reinvestments for BTPs; that’s not enough.
Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.
This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...
...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.
In one line: Hot, and we see no relief over the summer for the ECB.
The SNB threw a bazooka yesterday, hiking interest rates and doing a U-turn on its approach to the CHF.
As a result, the franc saw its biggest intra-day jump vs. the euro since the Frankenshock of 2015.
We look for the Bank to hike rates again at each of this year’s two remaining meetings, before pausing.
The ECB responds to market fragmentation, but it still needs to deliver something concrete, eventually.
If the SNB raises its inflation forecast to 2% or above for 2023 and 2024, hikes are coming.
An unwinding of favourable bank deposit tiering levels or softer language on the CHF, imply the same.
The neutral rate in the EZ is falling over time; it was likely negative immediately after the financial crisis.
We estimate the long-run neutral real rate to be 0.7% in the EZ, but the ECB policy rate won’t get that far.
We see the terminal ECB rate at 1.2-to-1.3%, 0.7-to- 0.6pp below current market-pricing.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
In one line: Sticking to the message; QE is still on track to end in Q3.
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