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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

monetary

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2022 EZ Monitor The ECB goes big on rates, and Italy heads for elections

The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.

The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.

Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2022 The ECB will Lift its Depo Rate by 25bp this week...or Maybe 50bp

We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.

The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.

Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2022 Fiscal Aid in Spain and Italy is Not Enough to Boost Consumption

Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.

The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.

Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 July 2022 How Much Flexibility Does the ECB Have on PEPP Reinvestments?

The ECB did not use its entire PEPP envelope and diverged from the capital key also in the APP.

Reinvestments will be used flexibly to cap spreads; rumours suggest cross-country purchases started.

Our estimates point to a maximum of €10B worth of PEPP reinvestments for BTPs; that’s not enough.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 June 2022 Brace for Further Russian Gas Flow Cuts and Higher Inflation

Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.

This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...

...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, EZ, May 2022

In one line: Hot, and we see no relief over the summer for the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 June 2022 The SNB will Not Hike as Quickly as the ECB, CHF will Weaken

The SNB threw a bazooka yesterday, hiking interest rates and doing a U-turn on its approach to the CHF.

As a result, the franc saw its biggest intra-day jump vs. the euro since the Frankenshock of 2015.

We look for the Bank to hike rates again at each of this year’s two remaining meetings, before pausing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 June 2022 The ECB Draws a Line in the Sand, No Change at the SNB in 2022?

The ECB responds to market fragmentation, but it still needs to deliver something concrete, eventually.

If the SNB raises its inflation forecast to 2% or above for 2023 and 2024, hikes are coming.

An unwinding of favourable bank deposit tiering levels or softer language on the CHF, imply the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2022 What are the Neutral and Terminal Rates in the Eurozone

The neutral rate in the EZ is falling over time; it was likely negative immediately after the financial crisis.

We estimate the long-run neutral real rate to be 0.7% in the EZ, but the ECB policy rate won’t get that far.

We see the terminal ECB rate at 1.2-to-1.3%, 0.7-to- 0.6pp below current market-pricing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, April 2022

In one line: Sticking to the message; QE is still on track to end in Q3. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Apr 2022 EZ Joblessness Falls; will Inflation Make us Look the Fools Again

  • EZ unemployment fell in February but a rise in the number on furlough poses risks to the outlook...
  • ...We still look for the jobless rate to fall gradually this year, to a record low of 6.5% by December.
  • More hot inflation data mark the last day of the ECB’s net asset purchases under PEPP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Mar 2022 EZ Survey Data Stayed Resilient in March, For the Most Part

  • Household confidence in the euro area plunged in March, but business surveys held up.
  • Private sector activity was still expanding at a decent clip at the end of Q1, but storm clouds are gathering.
  • The policy rate at the SNB isn't going anywhere, but the bank will intervene in FX markets, if needed.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

22 Mar 2022 The SNB will Stand Pat This Week & Hold Rates Until 2024, at Least

  • The Swiss franc has eased back from parity against the euro in recent days...
  • ...It will strengthen again before the end of ECB, QE, likely to 1.01-to-1.02, but will re-weaken in Q3.
  • With inflation set to fall below target in H2 this year, the SNB will not hike rates in line with the ECB.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Feb 2022 More Evidence that the ECB is About to Make a Hawkish Shift

  • Comments from Mr. Lane and Ms. Schnabel add to evidence of a hawkish shift in ECB policy.
  • French core inflation fell in January, but it will re- bound quickly, to 2.0%, where it will stay through Q3.
  • EZ construction fell in Q4, again, and consumer sentiment remained soft midway through Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Feb 2022 A Higher TLTRO Rate won't be a Disaster for the EZ Economy

  • The rate applied to TLTRO borrowings will rise from June, reducing revenues in the banking system.
  • We doubt the ECB will extend the special interest rate period for TLTROs...
  • ...But suspect it will raise the tiering multiple to help support bank lending as funding rates rise.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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