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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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5 July 2022 How Can the EZ Avoid a Recession in the Next Few Quarters?

Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.

A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...

...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, May 2022

In one line: The unemployment rate will increase next month, but this is not the beginning of a rising trend.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 June 2022 The ECB Draws a Line in the Sand, No Change at the SNB in 2022?

The ECB responds to market fragmentation, but it still needs to deliver something concrete, eventually.

If the SNB raises its inflation forecast to 2% or above for 2023 and 2024, hikes are coming.

An unwinding of favourable bank deposit tiering levels or softer language on the CHF, imply the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2022 The Devil is in the Detail in the Detailed Q1 EZ GDP Data

The Irish boost to EZ GDP growth in Q1 will have a reverse impact on growth in the second quarter.

We now expect EZ GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, 0.1pp lower than previously.

The risks to our forecast for a weak H2 are to the up-side, especially if the gas embargo remains elusive.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2022 Look Closely, and the Data Point to Early Signs of Weakness in the EZ

A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.

We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.

Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, April 2022

 In one line: The unemployment rate will resume its gradual fall soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 May 2022 ECB Hawks will Use the May HICP Data to Push for 50bp in July

Advance inflation in Germany and Spain hints at an upside surprise in today’s EZ HICP data for May.

Core HICP inflation in Germany will rise above 4% over the summer, adding to the pressure on the ECB.

The EU still hasn’t agreed on a Russian oil ban, but all eyes on Brussels today for a breakthrough.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2022 EZ GDP Growth will Slow Soon, but Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.

The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.

We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 May 2022 We Remain Bullish on Eurozone Labour Market Prospects

EZ GDP rose a tad quicker than initially estimated in Q1, lifting the carry-over for full-year growth in 2022.

Employment in the EZ is rising quicker than implied by GDP growth, but we still think it will slow in H2.

Women are driving the gains in EZ employment and labour force participation; that’s good news.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP & Employment, Eurozone, Q1 2022

 In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, March 2022

In one line: The recovery in the labour market slowed at the end of Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Apr 2022 EZ Joblessness Falls; will Inflation Make us Look the Fools Again

  • EZ unemployment fell in February but a rise in the number on furlough poses risks to the outlook...
  • ...We still look for the jobless rate to fall gradually this year, to a record low of 6.5% by December.
  • More hot inflation data mark the last day of the ECB’s net asset purchases under PEPP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February

In one line: Jobless rate falls, but only because of an upward revision to January’s data. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, March

In one line: Fall in unemployment rate will continue soon. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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