Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Industrial production set for a solid Q4; will it be enough to save the GDP print?
In one line: Terrible headline, but better details; output jumped in October.
- Factory orders in Germany crashed in October, pegged back by a plunge in large orders…
- …But turnover jumped, by 3.6% on the month, pointing to a consensus-beating production report today.
- German manufacturing likely will do well in Q4, but the virus is now a severe risk for services.
In one line: December’s survey is not going to be pretty.
In one line: Rebound driven by aircraft.
In one line: Still no signs of easing supply constraints in the surveys.
- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.
We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.
German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.
- The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
- …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
- We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.
In one line: Solid, but also old news given the recent surge in virus cases.
In one line: Better than expected but still points to slower GDP growth.
In one line: New restrictions will weigh on the index next month.
In one line: Services supporting activity, but for how much longer?
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
- The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
- Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.
- Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
- …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
- Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.
- EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
- We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
- Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.
In one line: A weak quarter; don’t expect much more from Q4.
- Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
- An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
- We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.
- GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
- Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
- Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.