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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

manufacturing output

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, October

In one line: Industrial production set for a solid Q4; will it be enough to save the GDP print? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, October 2021

In one line: Terrible headline, but better details; output jumped in October.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Dec 2021 Factory Orders in Germany are Falling, but Output is Rebounding

  • Factory orders in Germany crashed in October, pegged back by a plunge in large orders…
  • …But turnover jumped, by 3.6% on the month, pointing to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • German manufacturing likely will do well in Q4, but the virus is now a severe risk for services.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: Still no signs of easing supply constraints in the surveys. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

26 Nov 2021 Clouds Gather over Germany's Near-term Economic Outlook

  • German consumers' spending soared in Q3, offsetting falling investment and net exports.

    We are lowering our Q4 growth forecasts to 0.4-to- 0.5%, from 0.7% before; the virus is a threat.

    German investment in machinery and equipment looks terrible; it will get better next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

25 Nov 2021 We're Slashing our Q4 Forecasts in France, Despite Great Surveys

  • The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
  • …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
  • We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, November 2021

In one line: Solid, but also old news given the recent surge in virus cases.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: Better than expected but still points to slower GDP growth. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, November 2021

In one line: New restrictions will weigh on the index next month.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, November 2021

In one line: Services supporting activity, but for how much longer? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

18 Nov 2021 EZ Inflation will Cool in Q1, but Keep a Close Eye on Services

  • Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
  • …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
  • Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

17 Nov 2021 We're Holding on to our Outlook for Q4; by the Skin of our Teeth

  • EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
  • We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
  • Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

11 Nov 2021 Q3 GDP in Spain will be Revised Higher, but only Slightly

  • Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
  • An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
  • We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

  • GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
  • Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
  • Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence