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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

m1 growth

2 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Consumption will Pull Down Italian GDP in the Coming Quarters

Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.

We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.

Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor We See no Green Shoots in the Eurozone Money Supply Data

The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.

Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.

The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Don't be Fooled by Robust Q3 German GDP data

The detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany paint too rosy a picture of growth; a recession is coming. 

German consumers’ spending has been resilient so far, but we think this will end in Q4 and Q1. 

We now see German growth of just 0.3% in 2023, but that’s still a lot better than the -0.7% consensus. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Italy's Meloni Avoids a Truss 2.0 Moment, Despite Higher Spend

The new budget in Italy means consumption growth will slow less than we previously thought in 2023. 

Financial markets welcomed the budget; we are revising down our call for the rise in the BTP yield. 

We look for the yield to rise to 4.0%, and we think it will stay around that level for most of next year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The October Inflation Data are a Halloween Nightmare for the ECB

  • EZ inflation zoomed higher in October, and we now fear it will stay at 10% or higher in Q4.
  • Core inflation will remain close to 5% in Q4, and above 4% through the first quarter.
  • EZ GDP growth defied our expectations of a fall in Q3, but the slowdown is real, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q3-2022

In one line: Surprisingly solid; likely boosted by a leap in car sales.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor Lending Standards for Firms Are Tighter than at Peak of Covid Crisis

  • The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in September, pointing to falling output.
  • Banks are tightening standards and demand for credit is waning; we expect lending growth to slow.
  • Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni makes clear she is not Truss 2.0; markets welcome delay of some stimulus.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor France's economy is resilient, but growth is slowing

  • The French economy is resilient, but the data tell a clear story of slowing growth, all the same.
  • Households in France will enjoy a real-income boost in H2, but a rise in savings will curb consumption.
  • We think GDP in France rose by 0.1% q/q in Q3, which will be followed by a 0.3% fall in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Solid headline, but real M1 growth is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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