Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

liquidity

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Dec 2021 Expect Another "No Change" at SNB's Meeting This Week

Higher inflation recently has allowed the SNB to tolerate a much stronger franc than in the past.
We expect the Bank to keep all policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.
But falling inflation and a stronger franc heading into 2022 will force it to ramp up CHF sales soon.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

29 Nov 2021 #HereWeGoAgain: Covid is Once Again Haunting Markets

  • B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
  • French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Nov 2021 Will Bund Yields Rise to Zero Next Year, If the Virus is Contained, Yes

  • Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
  • ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
  • The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Sept 2021 Another SNB Snoozefest; Limited Impact from Evergrande on EZ

  • No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024.
  • The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention.
  • Markets are worried about Evergrande—rightly—but contagion is limited, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Aug 2021 Banks in the Eurozone are Healthy, but for How Long?

  • Banks went into the crisis in a relatively healthy state; much better than in 2007.
  • The jump in emergency loans during Covid is un- likely to be destabilizing, even if some of it turns sour.
  • Stress tests show that banks can handle a jump in NPLs, and foreign risks are generally limited.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 EZ Equity Investors Can't Look to the Macro Data for Help in H2

The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well.
Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts expect, they still aren't cheap.
Political risks in the G7 are now concentrated in Europe; next year's elections in France loom large

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2021 A Sneak-Peek at the Likely Pace of EZ GDP growth in H1 2022

Robust M1 growth points to solid GDP growth in the Eurozone, once the dust settles from reopening.
Loan growth is slowing, but that's mainly due to base effects; the underlying trend remains robust. 
Non-financial firms are substituting short-term for long-term lending, a good sign for investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 July 2021 The ECB is All-In on the Climate, but What does it Mean in Practice?

The ECB is pushing forward with its commitment to incorporate climate change into its policy framework over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2021 The ECB's New Inflation Target Signals Looser Policy, in Theory

The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review—see here—ahead of the planned announcement in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2021 Don't Fear the Slowdown in EZ M1 Growth; the Trend is still Solid

Data on Friday showed that money supply growth in the Eurozone slowed further midway through Q2. Broad money, M3, rose by 8.4% year-over-year in May, easing from a 9.4% increase in April.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence