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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: The rise in unemployment fears looks alarming.
In one line: Accelerating, but still falling short of inflation.
In one line: Unemployment is rising, but mainly due to supply-side effects.
The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.
The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.
The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.
We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.
The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.
The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.
In one line: Eurostat’s measure shows no “refugee effect”.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: GDP will soon be falling; a rise in labour supply is lifting the unemployment rate.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
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