Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
labour
In one line: Core inflation will reach a new record high in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jobless claims fall again at the start of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still no recession in Germany’s labour market.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The rise in unemployment fears looks alarming.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Economists’ forecasts for ECB policy rates beyond Q1 next year lack imagination, for good reason.
- A solid labour market and fiscal stimulus support the ECB’s sustained departure from the zero bound.
- Our new forecasts see a medium-term ECB policy rate at 1.8-to 2.0%, pointing to cuts in H1-2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell again in October, and all signs point to it sliding below the SNB’s estimates in Q4.
- We look for the SNB to hike just once more, taking the key policy rate to only 1.0%.
- The EZ labour market took the slowdown in Q3 on the chin, but surveys suggest resilience won’t last.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
- The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
- Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
- Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
- BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
- Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
- Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
- We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
- Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Accelerating, but still falling short of inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
- But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
- Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
- The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
- EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unemployment is rising, but mainly due to supply-side effects.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
