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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.
A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...
...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.
The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.
This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.
With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.
In one line: The unemployment rate will increase next month, but this is not the beginning of a rising trend.
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is still falling, and we see little relief in the near term.
Household sentiment is consistent with our forecast for falling consumers’ spending in H2...
...But the slowdown won’t feel anywhere near as bad as in 08 and 11/12, when activity was crushed.
The EZ core inflation rate will remain near 4% over the summer; it could even surpass 4% in July.
A sustained cut in Russian gas flows to Europe would send energy prices and inflation soaring, again.
Is the ECB edging towards an explicit cap on bond spreads? More QE will be needed if it is.
The Irish boost to EZ GDP growth in Q1 will have a reverse impact on growth in the second quarter.
We now expect EZ GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, 0.1pp lower than previously.
The risks to our forecast for a weak H2 are to the up-side, especially if the gas embargo remains elusive.
A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.
We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.
In one line: The unemployment rate will resume its gradual fall soon.
In one line: Early evidence of the incoming slowdown?
Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.
The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.
We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.
EZ GDP rose a tad quicker than initially estimated in Q1, lifting the carry-over for full-year growth in 2022.
Employment in the EZ is rising quicker than implied by GDP growth, but we still think it will slow in H2.
Women are driving the gains in EZ employment and labour force participation; that’s good news.
In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here.
EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.
The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.
Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.
In one line: The recovery in the labour market slowed at the end of Q1.
In one line: Robust, consistent with the surveys.
The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.
We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.
Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.
In one line: Jobless rate falls, but only because of an upward revision to January’s data.
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